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ustonapc
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Jim / Scott,

Bloomberg UK
@BloombergUK 2 hours ago


JUST IN: U.K. reports 218,724 new daily Covid-19 cases, the first time the figure has topped 200,000

UK also reporting record daily high COVID cases just now.

Regards
James

Jan 4, 2022 1:29:43 PM       
InmanRoshi
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

This is because the US can test 2 million people a day and in a flare 25% are positive so it can only diagnose 500,000 infections per day (This is approximate) but Omnicron is spreading faster than this.


I know several people who know they likely contracted it, but they can't find rapid at home test and because their symptoms are not serious they're not bothering to go to our local testing backlogged testing facilities and wait in line 1-2 hours.
I imagine we're only picking up a small sample of cases.


I have family members who work at our local hospital in Florida. Our case rates now are going straight vertical, and it's almost entirely Omicron because we had an absolutely brutal Delta wave previously in the summer/early fall and had phenomenally low rates in the months that followed until Omicron hit over the holidays. While were are seeing rises in "hospitalized" currently, it's not the same kind of hospitalizations that we saw during Delta. During Delta we were seeing much hospitalizations with really severe COVID pneumonias that required ventilators and ICU stays. A lot of our hospitalized now are elderly (mostly vaccinated) who are just really uncomfortable/weak and dehydrated and need a 1 or 2 day stays hooked on an IV and observation before they are discharged. Almost all of our serious ICU/Ventilator cases are unvaccinated (fwiw just reporting what I hear, not trying to start a debate over it .. I really respect that this community remains mostly apolitical and I don't wish to disrupt that). That said, it sounds like the regions of the US that are simultaneously getting hit with Delta are still experiencing a lot of the same severity we saw over the summer during our Delta wave. Scary stuff.

Stay safe and best of health to everyone.

Jan 4, 2022 2:05:10 PM       
Edit 6 times, last edit by InmanRoshi at Jan 4, 2022 2:12:21 PM
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

At one point I predicted there would be herd immunity soon. At the time it was commonly published that mutations similar to what we see with influenza recombinations were not possible (e.g., H1N1 becomes H1N3 or H2N1 in parts of the world where pigs and birds are in close proximity). Turns out--whatever was thought at the time--mutations are a problem.

I could try to blame it on the journals but I am here to say I was wrong. There will be no herd immunity, I think. Not what we have thought of as herd immunity, anyway. Maybe they will just redefine it.

This Journal of the American Medical Association link calls it the "zero Covid strategy." I may be oversimplifying but I think he is saying that is dead. A National Strategy for the “New Normal” of Life With COVID

I am hesitant to link to this because I didn't actually see anything actionable. But is refreshing to see people admit that strategy that they thought would work will not. Plain and simple.

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 6, 2022 2:41:31 PM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 6, 2022 2:47:58 PM
ustonapc
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Jim / Scott,

EU/US just too big (population) to peak without the world peaking.

So far, the world is not peaking.

Regards
James

Attachment Daily Reported Infections - Worldwide.png (91285 bytes) (Download count: 58)


Jan 6, 2022 3:22:35 PM       
ustonapc
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Jim,

These European countries are seeing a second surge after it was said their Omicron wave peaked.

Regards
James

Attachment Austria.jfif (91299 bytes) (Download count: 42)


Attachment Netherlands.jfif (93991 bytes) (Download count: 42)


Attachment Belgium.png (83118 bytes) (Download count: 44)


Attachment Germany.png (86862 bytes) (Download count: 43)


Jan 7, 2022 12:57:05 PM       
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

James, Thanks. -Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 7, 2022 3:25:19 PM       
sgmd01
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Hi James,

I've also been following the hospitalizations on this wave and they have decoupled from the number of infections relative to prior waves (less hospitalizations per infection this wave) however the sheer number of infections (which is greater than prior waves) could result in hospitalizations equaling or surpassing the prior waves.

Also as I mentioned previously we are significantly under reporting the number of infections

Scott

Jan 7, 2022 4:11:01 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by sgmd01 at Jan 7, 2022 4:12:33 PM
Chipper6
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

At one point I predicted there would be herd immunity soon. At the time it was commonly published that mutations similar to what we see with influenza recombinations were not possible (e.g., H1N1 becomes H1N3 or H2N1 in parts of the world where pigs and birds are in close proximity). Turns out--whatever was thought at the time--mutations are a problem.

I could try to blame it on the journals but I am here to say I was wrong. There will be no herd immunity, I think. Not what we have thought of as herd immunity, anyway. Maybe they will just redefine it.

If I understand this correctly, in order to achieve herd immunity, we need to get the R0 (the rate of reproduction) under 1, which would mean that each person who gets it would pass it on to less than one other person on average.

There are indications that natural immunity (unlike vaccines), lasts. This could make herd immunity achievable.

We should also be seriously considering redesigning ventilation for buildings. This is especially important for super spreader venues where there are travelers plus prolonged close indoor contact such as bars and special events.

Jan 8, 2022 9:26:35 PM       
Schm1347
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

If I understand this correctly, in order to achieve herd immunity, we need to get the R0 (the rate of reproduction) under 1, which would mean that each person who gets it would pass it on to less than one other person on average.


I would be careful about confusing rate of infection, R0, with herd immunity. They aren’t the same. At several times the R0 has dropped below 1. That’s what in fact happens when cases decrease which you know we have observed several times.

There are indications that natural immunity (unlike vaccines), lasts. This could make herd immunity achievable.


Perhaps, although there is much documented evidence of reinfection of those with prior infections and even more so with Omicron, albeit Omicron does appear milder. Vaccines are maintaining a level of immunity which does decrease over time, but the data is also showing the same for natural immunity. This is consistent with experience with common colds many which are caused by a few coronaviruses. Yet the average American gets 2-3 colds a year. One thing to consider with the flu or cold is that herd immunity is never really achieved but perhaps these diseases are less severe because we are constantly exposed to them throughout our lives. These diseases have also adapted to the human host. Typically as diseases adapt to a host they do become less deadly over time but this is a gradual and random process in the short term.

We should also be seriously considering redesigning ventilation for buildings. This is especially important for super spreader venues where there are travelers plus prolonged close indoor contact such as bars and special events.


Totally agree. Although I think over the coming months we will reach a collective exhaustion of COVID and won’t care about the risk. The stock market no longer cares and has moved on.

Jan 9, 2022 1:29:14 AM       
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours


Totally agree. Although I think over the coming months we will reach a collective exhaustion of COVID and won’t care about the risk. The stock market no longer cares and has moved on.

Scott,

When I read the article I linked to above I had not realized that Ezekiel Emanuel had coauthored it. As you probably know, he played a big part in the writing of the affordable care act. He doesn't just write editorials. He shapes policy.

Also I think it is no coincidence that he is writing this as Omicron is becoming the predominant strain. He probably has an opinion as to the the ability to achieve zero Omicron as well as early results on the case fatality rate for this strain.

The article speaks for itself without adding my predictions about Omicron. But without a lot of surprises one can expect this kind of thinking to shape policy going forward. Certainly in things like insurance coverage, vaccine regulations etc. I am sure that people in the Biden administration have at least read this--as well as longer policy recommendations from him and his coworkers. I think it is already backed into the cake (barring any surprises). Ezekiel Emanuel has an influence on, or even direct control of, the policies we will see: not an endorsement of, or comment on, the affordable care act.

Best,

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 9, 2022 5:00:00 AM       
Edit 10 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 9, 2022 9:58:24 AM
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