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ustonapc
The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Bloomberg Markets
@markets
- 4 hours ago

BREAKING: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours, doubling the figure from just four days ago and setting a global record

Here is the link : https://trib.al/VUG5x0U

Jim / Scott,

What do you think about the COVD situation now and your prediction over the next few weeks?

Regards
James

Jan 4, 2022 3:28:15 AM       
Edit 5 times, last edit by ustonapc at Jan 4, 2022 10:40:08 AM
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Hi James,

The article has good information that largely speaks for itself. As someone who has to interpret tests results (and does some investing) false positives, sensitivity and specificity are important to me. The CDC is battling with this:

"......the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shortened the isolation period to five days for asymptomatic people who test positive for Covid-19, the agency may add that they should get a negative test result before venturing out again, officials said."

I believe they are talking about the fast antigen test which has few false positives (specific but not sensitive).

The PCR test is TOO SENSITIVE for this use as it can give positive results for about 12 weeks after an infection (when I a person is not longer contagious) and the CDC has specifically said this should not be used for this purpose.

Anyway, the PCR test has been giving false positives and skewing some of the results all along. Loose discussion and poor understanding of the different tests in the media has led to some polarization that is purely due to not understanding the advantages and limitations of the tests or even knowing which test is being used (discussed). Some discussions (on all sides) intentionally confuses the issue.

Clinically, as a practical example, when I had Covid I tested positive with the fast antigen test. Since it is specific, I probably had active Covid (not a false positive) no further testing was needed. The physician would had given me the PCR test if the antigen test was negative. It is a more sensitive test. A negative PCR test will ensure that a person does not have Covid (with high confidence) and pick up some additional people who truly have Covid. At the cost of finding some people who do not have an active infection.

There are a lot of false positives for younger women getting mammograms which is one reason mammograms are no longer recommended for younger women without high-risk characteristics. So, this is something medicine (physicians, test companies and drug companies) deal with every day. Sensitivity, specifically and accuracy of results are important to the recent guilty-finding in the Elizabeth Holmes case.

Anyway, I hope I have not said anything political or overstated my abilities to predict what willl happen. I am looking at a Random Forest Classifier as we speak. Are my results a false positive? A serious question that could cost me (make me) money.

Best,

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 4, 2022 3:59:34 AM       
Edit 10 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 4, 2022 4:57:34 AM
marco
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

If virus and it's variants turn out to be "just like a flu" then 1M is just fear mongering from news sources.

A quick search reveals that the regular flu in 2017 killed about 0.1% of the 41M infections.

These numbers are wrong. I posted the corrected stats below
From June 2021 till now Covid in the USA killed 1.5% of the infections. The previous wave, June 2020 - June 2021 it killed 2.3%. So it's in the right direction, but still too high to just live normal! With vaccinations and omicron the number better go much, much lower. Are we at the inflection point ? Are vaccines really that effective? Let's hope.

That's what I'm watching

Portfolio123 Staff.

Jan 4, 2022 7:14:42 AM       
Edit 4 times, last edit by marco at Jan 4, 2022 12:03:00 PM
marco
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

And in 2017 150M flu vaccines were given. Covid has 210M vaccinations, yet covid is still 15x more dangerous. So very troubling if downward trend does not pick up.

Portfolio123 Staff.

Jan 4, 2022 7:26:53 AM       
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Edit: perhaps my post was not in full agreement. The Delta variant has a mortality rate (case mortality rate) of about 0.28% in New York according to one study that tested for antibodies as evidence of previous infection. It is unknown for Omicron. Source

Note: many sources are now hiding the results of this and not stating numbers for any studies. The WHO for example will not give a number (but they did when the numbers looked like they were higher). It is not immediately available on the CDC site either. I welcome any other references from peer reviewed studies. My references are limited, I am still searching this and they could be plain wrong as I post this. But it does look like better numbers should be more available but are generally harder to find.


Also even 0.28% IS HIGHER THAN THE FLU. I am not out to make a point. I will leave my original post for now as I am not sure that it is entirely wrong--especially with regard to the younger people going to Woodstock. But it is not a simple discussion and there are some things about Omicron that certainly I do not know.

Here is a serious discussion of the numbers (in general) with some (too?) early discussion about Omicron case mortality: Statisical data about Omicron

Marco,

I agree. I did not want to have too much of an opinion before. But perhaps members will forgive me if I post in agreement with an already well-reasoned post.

For perspective on flu, the flu in 1968 was very severe. Possibly as severe as the Omicron Variant and there was no oral medication at the time (like Paxlovid for Covid now).

America's response regarding 6 foot distancing? Just look at old videos of Woodstock. Should they have cancelled Woodstock? Maybe they should have and maybe they would today. Certainly, Jimi Hendrix should have been wearing a mask ;-)

I do to have the final word on this. But it is not a one-sided debate where only one viewpoint is worth considering.

Thank you Marco,

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 4, 2022 7:56:48 AM       
Edit 30 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 4, 2022 9:46:24 AM
sgmd01
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Data from Europe and S Africa suggests Omnicron is less lethal than Delta, with some sources showing its reduction at approximately 80%. This may be due to prior immunity or because the virus is less likely to attack the lungs. It appears to be almost 2x as infectious as Delta, again from limited data. Recent papers have showed that vaccinated people clear Omnicron in 5.5 days vs unvaccinated clear it in 7.5 days which is why the CDC shortened the isolation period. There is data showing that PCR tests can be positive for up to 3 months as they pick up dead viral particles but the CDC has seen no evidence of infectiousness past 9 days in anyone that isn't immunosuppressed. There is a paucity of data on how long the rapid antigen tests can be positive for but University of Chicago doesn't retest for 3 months after a covid infection for the reason of above.

Jan 4, 2022 10:29:15 AM       
ustonapc
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Jim / Scott,

In the last 10 days, 3.11M tested positive in US. That works out to about 1.6% of the total workforce. And no peak yet.

Virtually all of them will recover, but most will be prevented from working or going out (economic activity).

Same demand, less production = more inflation

Western Europe has consistent been about six weeks ahead of the US, and they also made a new record Monday and, for now, are not showing signs of peaking.

Regards
James

Attachment 10 days Quarantine Level.jfif (267075 bytes) (Download count: 67)


Attachment Western Europe - Reported Infections.png (194980 bytes) (Download count: 67)


Jan 4, 2022 11:06:59 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Jan 4, 2022 11:11:10 AM
marco
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

I made a bad mistake in my calculation where I said the last 6 months the mortality was 1.5% (I was using running totals, not period totals). It's actually 1.01% , so seems to be dropping much faster.

I'm simply using numbers from the graphs in ‚Äčhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The corrected numbers are
6.3% for wave 1 (feb 2020 - jun 2020)
1.5% for wave 2 (jun 2020 - jun 2021)
1.01% for wave 3 (jun 2021 - jan 2022)

1% is still very high. But If these numbers are not reliable (cases are actually 10x , mortality overstated, etc) then who knows what is going on

Attachment capture.png (16688 bytes) (Download count: 60)


Portfolio123 Staff.

Jan 4, 2022 12:01:27 PM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by marco at Jan 4, 2022 12:04:26 PM
Jrinne
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

Thank you Marco.

Marco,

I do not have numbers that I want to post. I am good with 1%, BTW.

Remember, especially with Omicron there is the claim that a lot of people have the disease but never have symptoms and probably never get tested. They clearly are cases.

The CDC and WHO are having problems with quantitating these people. I like the CDC and FDA despite any weakness. Probably things like this are the cause of any hesitancy to publish any numbers (not some conspiracy). I guess someone will have to look at this when they put the final numbers in the text books

Serious stuff no matter what the numbers are. And at a minimum any spike that stresses hospitals has to be addressed.

Thank you for the data.

Best,

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 4, 2022 12:10:39 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 4, 2022 12:14:12 PM
sgmd01
Re: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours

The denominator of the number of cases is likely much higher which makes the mortality lower. This is because there is a large gap between the amount of covid detected in sewage (it's 2-3x higher in sewage) relative to the amount of positive tests. This is because the US can test 2 million people a day and in a flare 25% are positive so it can only diagnose 500,000 infections per day (This is approximate) but Omnicron is spreading faster than this.

Jan 4, 2022 12:31:58 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by sgmd01 at Jan 4, 2022 12:48:29 PM
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