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ustonapc
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Bloomberg Markets @markets - 4 hours ago BREAKING: The U.S. tops 1 million Covid infections in 24 hours, doubling the figure from just four days ago and setting a global record Here is the link : https://trib.al/VUG5x0U Jim / Scott, What do you think about the COVD situation now and your prediction over the next few weeks? Regards James |
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last edit by
ustonapc
at Jan 4, 2022 10:40:08 AM
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marco
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If virus and it's variants turn out to be "just like a flu" then 1M is just fear mongering from news sources. A quick search reveals that the regular flu in 2017 killed about 0.1% of the 41M infections. These numbers are wrong. I posted the corrected stats below That's what I'm watching Portfolio123 Staff. |
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last edit by
marco
at Jan 4, 2022 12:03:00 PM
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marco
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And in 2017 150M flu vaccines were given. Covid has 210M vaccinations, yet covid is still 15x more dangerous. So very troubling if downward trend does not pick up. Portfolio123 Staff. |
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Jrinne
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Edit: perhaps my post was not in full agreement. The Delta variant has a mortality rate (case mortality rate) of about 0.28% in New York according to one study that tested for antibodies as evidence of previous infection. It is unknown for Omicron. Source Note: many sources are now hiding the results of this and not stating numbers for any studies. The WHO for example will not give a number (but they did when the numbers looked like they were higher). It is not immediately available on the CDC site either. I welcome any other references from peer reviewed studies. My references are limited, I am still searching this and they could be plain wrong as I post this. But it does look like better numbers should be more available but are generally harder to find. Also even 0.28% IS HIGHER THAN THE FLU. I am not out to make a point. I will leave my original post for now as I am not sure that it is entirely wrong--especially with regard to the younger people going to Woodstock. But it is not a simple discussion and there are some things about Omicron that certainly I do not know. Here is a serious discussion of the numbers (in general) with some (too?) early discussion about Omicron case mortality: Statisical data about Omicron Marco, I agree. I did not want to have too much of an opinion before. But perhaps members will forgive me if I post in agreement with an already well-reasoned post. For perspective on flu, the flu in 1968 was very severe. Possibly as severe as the Omicron Variant and there was no oral medication at the time (like Paxlovid for Covid now). America's response regarding 6 foot distancing? Just look at old videos of Woodstock. Should they have cancelled Woodstock? Maybe they should have and maybe they would today. Certainly, Jimi Hendrix should have been wearing a mask ;-) I do to have the final word on this. But it is not a one-sided debate where only one viewpoint is worth considering. Thank you Marco, Jim Great theory, "and yet it moves." -Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum. ` |
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last edit by
Jrinne
at Jan 4, 2022 9:46:24 AM
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sgmd01
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Data from Europe and S Africa suggests Omnicron is less lethal than Delta, with some sources showing its reduction at approximately 80%. This may be due to prior immunity or because the virus is less likely to attack the lungs. It appears to be almost 2x as infectious as Delta, again from limited data. Recent papers have showed that vaccinated people clear Omnicron in 5.5 days vs unvaccinated clear it in 7.5 days which is why the CDC shortened the isolation period. There is data showing that PCR tests can be positive for up to 3 months as they pick up dead viral particles but the CDC has seen no evidence of infectiousness past 9 days in anyone that isn't immunosuppressed. There is a paucity of data on how long the rapid antigen tests can be positive for but University of Chicago doesn't retest for 3 months after a covid infection for the reason of above. |
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ustonapc
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Jim / Scott, In the last 10 days, 3.11M tested positive in US. That works out to about 1.6% of the total workforce. And no peak yet. Virtually all of them will recover, but most will be prevented from working or going out (economic activity). Same demand, less production = more inflation Western Europe has consistent been about six weeks ahead of the US, and they also made a new record Monday and, for now, are not showing signs of peaking. Regards James ![]() ![]() |
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last edit by
ustonapc
at Jan 4, 2022 11:11:10 AM
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marco
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I made a bad mistake in my calculation where I said the last 6 months the mortality was 1.5% (I was using running totals, not period totals). It's actually 1.01% , so seems to be dropping much faster. I'm simply using numbers from the graphs in https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ The corrected numbers are 6.3% for wave 1 (feb 2020 - jun 2020) 1.5% for wave 2 (jun 2020 - jun 2021) 1.01% for wave 3 (jun 2021 - jan 2022) 1% is still very high. But If these numbers are not reliable (cases are actually 10x , mortality overstated, etc) then who knows what is going on ![]() Portfolio123 Staff. |
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last edit by
marco
at Jan 4, 2022 12:04:26 PM
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Jrinne
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Thank you Marco. Marco, I do not have numbers that I want to post. I am good with 1%, BTW. Remember, especially with Omicron there is the claim that a lot of people have the disease but never have symptoms and probably never get tested. They clearly are cases. The CDC and WHO are having problems with quantitating these people. I like the CDC and FDA despite any weakness. Probably things like this are the cause of any hesitancy to publish any numbers (not some conspiracy). I guess someone will have to look at this when they put the final numbers in the text books Serious stuff no matter what the numbers are. And at a minimum any spike that stresses hospitals has to be addressed. Thank you for the data. Best, Jim Great theory, "and yet it moves." -Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum. ` |
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last edit by
Jrinne
at Jan 4, 2022 12:14:12 PM
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sgmd01
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The denominator of the number of cases is likely much higher which makes the mortality lower. This is because there is a large gap between the amount of covid detected in sewage (it's 2-3x higher in sewage) relative to the amount of positive tests. This is because the US can test 2 million people a day and in a flare 25% are positive so it can only diagnose 500,000 infections per day (This is approximate) but Omnicron is spreading faster than this. |
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last edit by
sgmd01
at Jan 4, 2022 12:48:29 PM
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