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ustonapc
Re: How was 2021?

How's this for "proof"? It's a screenshot from Fidelity with the account numbers blacked out. All the figures are as of 12/31/21 and are annualized. The "Total" line is the pertinent one. Also I use some margin in the cash account. My margin debt right now is 14.5% of my total funds.


Yuval,

Thanks for the screenshot and letting us know you trade in margin.

Without leverage, the return is closer 60% from my calculation. (the return is similar to your "crazy return microcap designer model")

This is still 1/3 lower than the 100%+ return that was stated from trading small caps/microcaps with P123.

I will highlight again that there are hedge funds, mutual funds and actively managed ETFs that play in this space.

Regards
James

Attachment crazy returns microcap model 3.png (20529 bytes) (Download count: 76)


Attachment crazy returns microcap model 2.png (25367 bytes) (Download count: 71)


Jan 14, 2022 3:23:00 PM       
rtelford
Re: How was 2021?

OK, here is performance from my bank(s) as well. Descriptions of each account/strategy in the pic filename. Blue rectangles hide account numbers. ** EDIT - first pic is incorrect, but cannot delete. Correct pic added at bottom.***

Attachment US_small all round.PNG (120358 bytes) (Download count: 76)


Attachment US_small growth.PNG (119884 bytes) (Download count: 72)


Attachment CAD_small all round.PNG (120088 bytes) (Download count: 72)


Attachment CAD_small growth.PNG (120298 bytes) (Download count: 75)


Attachment US_cloud.PNG (126983 bytes) (Download count: 74)


Attachment US_crisis.PNG (117512 bytes) (Download count: 73)


Attachment CAD_crisis.PNG (85122 bytes) (Download count: 70)


Attachment US_small all round_correct.PNG (116152 bytes) (Download count: 71)


Ryan Telford -- also find me at:
Seeking Alpha
Twitter

Jan 14, 2022 3:43:25 PM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by rtelford at Jan 14, 2022 3:50:29 PM
yuvaltaylor
Re: How was 2021?



Without leverage, the return is closer 60% from my calculation. (the return is similar to your "crazy return microcap designer model")

This is still 1/3 lower than the 100%+ return that was stated from trading small caps/microcaps with P123.


No. The return on my positions alone--without considering leverage or cash--was 70% in 2021. I never said it was over 100% in 2021. It was over 100% in 2020. I have never misrepresented my returns to anyone. I underperformed the market significantly in 2019 and have never hidden that fact.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Jan 14, 2022 3:45:29 PM       
InspectorSector
Re: How was 2021?

I don't want to rain on anybody's parade and perhaps the results quoted here are real. But the stock-picking contest is the only mechanism other DMs that are truly verifiable. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but there were close to 20 stock-picking entries in 2021, of which 9 were still around by the end of the year. The results are shown below (to today's date).

Attachment 2021.gif (120501 bytes) (Download count: 73)


Jan 14, 2022 5:05:47 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by InspectorSector at Jan 14, 2022 5:07:08 PM
RTNL
Re: How was 2021?

I don't want to rain on anybody's parade and perhaps the results quoted here are real. But the stock-picking contest is the only mechanism other DMs that are truly verifiable. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but there were close to 20 stock-picking entries in 2021, of which 9 were still around by the end of the year. The results are shown below (to today's date).


These are the returns from last year Steve. I was the lucky winner
https://www.portfolio123.com/mvnforum/viewthread_thread,12652_offset,70

I appreciate Yuval, Azouz, Ryan and others sharing their brokerage statement proofs. None of them were obligated to. Maybe we can all learn from them :)

Jan 14, 2022 11:05:36 PM       
Jrinne
Re: How was 2021?


I appreciate Yuval, Azouz, Ryan and others sharing their brokerage statement proofs. None of them were obligated to. Maybe we can all learn from them :)


I appreciate all of the new data. As far as pure volume of data nothing comes close to what Dan presented.

Before that we had the Designer models only (with some anecdotal stories). BTW Marc's median model is performing at the benchmark he selected (with serious survivorship bias). Likewise, Yuval's median model is performing at his benchmark. The average designer is doing worse.

Another fact that has been proven beyond any doubt whatsoever by the Designer Models is that, for the average user, in-sample sim results are negatively correlated with out-of-sample port results. For most situations, sims cannot be used to support a strategy. Not in isolation anyway.

That is the objective evidence we had up until now.

Surely there must have been other hard evidence upon which to make a decision about where to place your retirement funds? Well, P123 has a pop-up ad that suggests you can earn $1,000,000 at P123.

I totally agree that no one should have to show their brokerage account. But no one forced P123 to make a pop-up ad a very large part of the argument to join P123, either.

One could even say that a pop-up ad was THE SOLE BASIS for P123's argument to join until now considering the Designer Model's performance.

Now, I have new data that probably changes my opinion. I was probably going to leave in April before I got some new data in this thread. That was uncertain but it is absolutely true that I have no funded P123 models to share in this thread.

If I stay it will be largely because of the volume of data that Dan presented. BTW, he did that with no one asking him to and he obviously has an understanding of what constitutes real evidence. He has no pop-up ad that he might want to consider documenting.

IMHO, there is nothing wrong if anyone wants to see documentation of what has been almost the sole argument for joining P123 up until now. No one forced P123 to use a pop-up ad. Considering that they decided to go with the ad the only surprising thing is that they did not present some evidence for that a long time ago.

And some profession sites might have chosen to present something like Azouz did with volatility metrics and a Sharpe ratio if they were going to advertise a portfolio in a pop-up ad.

IMHO, it would not have to involve personal accounts but P123 might consider continuing to make a serious (professional) case for joining (and staying at) P123 as Dan has done in this thread. I do understand that when they were started, some thought the designer models would serve that purpose.

While not a shining example of how it should be, Zacks does make an attempt to validate its claims about Zacks rank without trying to imply they should not have to do so. But it would be true: They don't have to do it. I don't think there would be a Zacks today if that had been their approach, however. Certainly, I would not have visited their site more than once (if at all). As it is, Zack have gotten some money from me over the years. Largely based on some documented out-of-sample evidence.

Uh... Maybe that is an exaggeration. Zacks also markets to professionals and maybe the professionals funding Zacks operation don't want to see any objective evidence that using Zacks' data has the potential to improve their bottom line. Could be just me but I do not think so.

Best,

Jim

Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.
`

Jan 15, 2022 3:19:03 AM       
Edit 49 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 15, 2022 8:27:10 AM
RTNL
Re: How was 2021?

You are right on many points, Jim.

And many of us who have had some middling success with P123 do not know if the OOS results are going to last, so do not share. Also, AFAIK IBKR may be the only broker to compute Sharpe's and Sortino's on individual accounts.

For me P123 is also a data source to look at fundamental data, Not just a simulation engine. But equally good data is now available on many sites like TIKR or ROIC.AI. I wish we had more line items for marketing, SB comp etc.

To be fair, sites like Validea.com which also run algorithmic models have had marginal success with their strategies. Maybe there is value add in P123 adding such models?

Jan 15, 2022 8:32:20 AM       
InspectorSector
Re: How was 2021?

These are the returns from last year Steve. I was the lucky winner

Congrats to you and those that enjoyed great results last year. Value strategies are the place to be right now. I remember a year ago everyone here was lamenting that quant and value were dead. What a difference a year makes! Unfortunately, growth stocks (my specialty) are in a severe bear market and will probably remain that way for quite some time.

Jan 15, 2022 9:20:52 AM       
sglinski
Re: How was 2021?

Inspector Sector,

Respectfully, you omitted at least one entry in the stock picking contest of 2021 (myself) as documented here, with a return of 18% and a sharpe of 1.33: (Probably because I named my port "Yearly Contest..")

https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/191518?st=1&mt=1

Incidentally, this proves that at least one value strategy was not "dead." (More specifically, my strategy combined Low-Volatility and Reliable Dividends)..

Steve G

Jan 15, 2022 11:45:54 AM       
InspectorSector
Re: How was 2021?

Hi Steve G - It doesn't look like you followed the conventions that were asked for, and screens are easily modifiable :-) But anyways, 18% is a good achievement, so congratulations on a good year.

Jan 15, 2022 6:18:00 PM       
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