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marco
Re: How was 2021?

I made 73% this year.


It's true, and you did this also for the P123 accounts! Too bad I had the big one and you had the smaller ones :(

Can you manage the rest of the P123 money ??

Portfolio123 Staff.

Jan 3, 2022 6:03:49 PM       
SpacemanJones
Re: How was 2021?

Really impressive some of the results posted - especially considering the size of money some are putting to work in the micro and small cap space. Congrats to those who did well. Seriously - I'm impressed. ;-)

Jan 4, 2022 5:02:46 AM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: How was 2021?

Congrats to all of you. I am a newbie and your numbers are incredibly motivating. Curious to know if you are getting these returns on $100k-500k accounts, or larger? Seems like there is a correlation with size and return, but maybe not as much on this size of account.
Thanks


For me, it's much larger: I started the year with $2.5 million. But I got better returns on smaller accounts that I managed. Size does hurt: market impact costs really do add up. I see them every day.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Jan 4, 2022 11:48:16 PM       
RTNL
Re: How was 2021?

Congrats to all of you. I am a newbie and your numbers are incredibly motivating. Curious to know if you are getting these returns on $100k-500k accounts, or larger? Seems like there is a correlation with size and return, but maybe not as much on this size of account.
Thanks


For me, it's much larger: I started the year with $2.5 million. But I got better returns on smaller accounts that I managed. Size does hurt: market impact costs really do add up. I see them every day.


What kind of turnover did you experience with your strategy, Yuval? And IIRC 25-45 positions right? Regards,

Jan 5, 2022 7:53:09 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by RTNL at Jan 5, 2022 8:36:33 AM
RTNL
Re: How was 2021?

Total return of ~55% between US and CAD accounts. Mostly small and microcaps. Agree w/ Andreas, bulk of the return came in Q1, rest of the year was very volatile. Canadian accounts benefitted from recovery in oil prices in H2. Cloud based strategy very volatile, crushed in Q4, regardless of strong fundamentals.

What I found troubling late in the year, several strategies got hit hard by sell-offs, but did not bounce back during the dip buying. Perhaps money moving to indices. If this continues, may have to adjust some strategies.

I usually publish a year end review on Seeking Alpha, here is 2021's:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477668-2021...rnt-investing-performance


Ryan - thanks for this post. I did not realize you posted on seeking alpha. In your Ken Fisher article, you show a slide of market share. How does one calculate that in P123? Any guidance will be appreciated.

Jan 5, 2022 8:56:56 AM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: How was 2021?

Congrats to all of you. I am a newbie and your numbers are incredibly motivating. Curious to know if you are getting these returns on $100k-500k accounts, or larger? Seems like there is a correlation with size and return, but maybe not as much on this size of account.
Thanks


For me, it's much larger: I started the year with $2.5 million. But I got better returns on smaller accounts that I managed. Size does hurt: market impact costs really do add up. I see them every day.


What kind of turnover did you experience with your strategy, Yuval? And IIRC 25-45 positions right? Regards,


I'm not sure of my turnover. The average number of days I held a closed position was 55 and the average number of days held of my current open positions is 81.

And yes, 25 to 45 positions.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Jan 5, 2022 9:27:49 AM       
rtelford
Re: How was 2021?

Total return of ~55% between US and CAD accounts. Mostly small and microcaps. Agree w/ Andreas, bulk of the return came in Q1, rest of the year was very volatile. Canadian accounts benefitted from recovery in oil prices in H2. Cloud based strategy very volatile, crushed in Q4, regardless of strong fundamentals.

What I found troubling late in the year, several strategies got hit hard by sell-offs, but did not bounce back during the dip buying. Perhaps money moving to indices. If this continues, may have to adjust some strategies.

I usually publish a year end review on Seeking Alpha, here is 2021's:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477668-2021...rnt-investing-performance


Ryan - thanks for this post. I did not realize you posted on seeking alpha. In your Ken Fisher article, you show a slide of market share. How does one calculate that in P123? Any guidance will be appreciated.


If you don't mind, PM me on Seeking Alpha so we don't hijack this thread :-)

Ryan Telford -- also find me at:
Seeking Alpha
Twitter

Jan 5, 2022 11:31:43 AM       
korr123
Re: How was 2021?

Every year there is this kind of calendar year assessment but I don't see any value. Hoping someone can sort this out for me.

If we look at actual data, like the designer models, we don't see any kind of out performance. There are stories here and there, like Yuval this year, of one off successes, but even in his specific case, the transparent designer models tell a different story -- one of random ex post relative performance since inception. At best, the data shows one model that meaningfully outperforms but it not accessible (max of 2 subscribers).

How do these kind of discussions help? It's an annual post and I just don't see the value - aside from entertainment. Do I have this wrong?

Jan 5, 2022 6:43:35 PM       
abwillingham
Re: How was 2021?

There are several designer models that did well. The Seven Sisters did 80%, Keating's 20 did 70% and Yuval's Crazy did 55%.

Jan 6, 2022 12:13:26 AM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: How was 2021?

Every year there is this kind of calendar year assessment but I don't see any value. Hoping someone can sort this out for me.

If we look at actual data, like the designer models, we don't see any kind of out performance. There are stories here and there, like Yuval this year, of one off successes, but even in his specific case, the transparent designer models tell a different story -- one of random ex post relative performance since inception. At best, the data shows one model that meaningfully outperforms but it not accessible (max of 2 subscribers).

How do these kind of discussions help? It's an annual post and I just don't see the value - aside from entertainment. Do I have this wrong?


The value here is in a) proving that using Portfolio123 can help people beat the market. Many of our subscribers have done so. And b) people sharing how they were successful or unsuccessful with other users, who can then learn from them.

There is no outperformance of the designer models because people aren't actually using or maintaining them. They posted them a long time ago, let them run, have not revised or worked on them, have not corrected for overfitting, and so on. You should look only at designer models that are actually being used and being kept current. For example, I revise my small cap and microcap designer models every few years because it's important for me and for my subscribers that they remain current. The other models I created are just sitting there unused. If I remove them I'll be accused of survivorship bias. You can't win. The designer models prove nothing. The losing ones are inactive and the winning ones are overwhelmed by the inactive ones. It's as if you judged hedge fund performance not only by the hedge funds that are out there but also pretended all the ones that aren't out there any more still are, and are still losing money.

My success is not "one off." I've beat the market every year but one, with a total CAGR of 49% over the last six years.

I hope this helps answer your question. Ryan can perhaps answer it even better as he wrote a long article for Seeking Alpha about his performance this year.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Jan 6, 2022 8:30:25 AM       
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