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sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

James,
The recent Bitcoin price jump occurred when the non commercial traders moved to net long positions for the first time ever as per the prior graphic

Feb 8, 2022 10:16:52 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by sgmd01 at Feb 8, 2022 10:19:40 PM
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

Bitcoin CME futures just dropped through support at 43,000.

If it stays below 43,000, there is a good chance that it will test the support at 39,000-40,000 level next week.

Regards
James

Attachment Bitcoin CME Futures.png (104764 bytes) (Download count: 108)


Feb 11, 2022 2:30:28 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 11, 2022 6:43:48 PM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James.

I'm just watching it from a distance. Cryptos are very volatile and don't mean revert or trend well, return drivers are questionable, Crypto hedge funds overall have a .88 correlation to Bitcoin suggesting more beta and less alpha, and I don't have confidence in it as an asset class similar to this paper (https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article...-Play-the-Sap-for-Crypto). However I do recognize it's value in being non correlated to everything else

Scott

Feb 12, 2022 1:19:44 PM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

I am also watching from a distance right now.

For bitcoin, I will consider buying the dip if it dropped to 20,000 level or if it rises about the weekly Parabolic SAR (breaking new ATH) at about 60,000.

Regards
James

Feb 12, 2022 5:56:06 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 12, 2022 5:56:39 PM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/crypt.../ar-AATWHR0?ocid=msedgntp

Feb 17, 2022 12:39:37 AM       
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

James,
I posted the prior article because it shared my view that it's hard to find the bottom of a crypto selloff because there's "nothing there" as the senior JP Morgan Strategist states in this article. Based on the same theme the Strategist states that digital assets are in particular danger because they serve no purpose. "It's still all fairy dust and very vulnerable to higher interest rates," he said.
Scott

Feb 17, 2022 11:01:36 PM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

Thanks for sharing the article.

However, it should be noted that JP Morgan's prediction was completely different 3 months ago and forecasted bitcoin hitting 146,000 in the long term.

"Indeed, JPMorgan reckons that volatility is such a problem that bitcoin's fair price is actually around $35,000 at the moment. Yet the bank said that the token's volatility is currently falling and that a price of $73,000 looks reasonable for next year."

Like forecasting S&P500, investment banks change their view very often depending on the market direction.

Here is the link.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-renew...de%20waves%20in%20January.

Regards
James

Feb 18, 2022 1:25:25 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 18, 2022 1:40:30 AM
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

I hope you find this interesting.

Regards
James

Attachment Morgan Stanley.jfif (414095 bytes) (Download count: 58)


Attachment Morgan Stanley2.jfif (483549 bytes) (Download count: 56)


Mar 3, 2022 9:22:11 AM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

I have send you a spreadsheet that compares the performance of Medallion Fund/Berkshire Hathaway/S&P 500 for the past 30 years.

Pls check your email box when you have time.

Regards
James

Mar 4, 2022 5:05:42 AM       
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James. Biden just announced that a crypto executive order is coming this week. Between increased regulation and crypto weakness during a period that should drive it's prices upward (inflation & confiscation of assets) I'm growing more skeptical of it's utility (I still have an open mind but the data is getting more negative)

Mar 7, 2022 2:20:14 PM       
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