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ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

RSI=53

Will RSI drop below 50 (indicating downward momentum and start of a bear market), or will RSI stay above 50 and rise again, because at the peak in 2021 RSI did barely go above 90 as well (no high peak = no extreme low).

Regards
James

Attachment Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI).jfif (174287 bytes) (Download count: 91)


Feb 1, 2022 8:27:00 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 1, 2022 8:27:16 AM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James

Feb 1, 2022 12:53:44 PM       
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

I read this as India trying to steer its citizens into its own cryptocurrency.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/india...r-AATmzoB?ocid=uxbndlbing

Feb 1, 2022 1:25:34 PM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

Bitcoin initially surged to day high after the news but has fallen back below 38,500 now.

By the way, I switched out of XLK to BLOK at market opening today.

Not sure how long I will be holding BLOK.

Regards
James

Edit : Just took profit on BLOK at market close. I may buy back BLOK tomorrow depending on the update on my model in P123.

Bloomberg Markets

India Finally Warms to Crypto With Tax, Digital Currency
- Income from virtual assets to be taxed at 30%, minister says
- Plans to introduce digital rupee in fiscal year starting April

Attachment Booster Dose.jpg (89682 bytes) (Download count: 73)


Feb 1, 2022 2:13:56 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 1, 2022 3:04:58 PM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James.

These regulatory changes could come from any country at any time and when combined with the questionable utility of many of these cryptocurrencies there is a dimension of risk and unpredictability which is unique.

Feb 1, 2022 5:20:10 PM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Jim/Scott,

It is pretty interesting that despite the crash in stocks yesterday, crypto was relatively unaffected.

Both stocks/bonds are falling right now after the Jan payroll report, crypto is up now with bitcoin rising almost 10%.


Regards
James

EDIT : Bitcoin futures just broke through resistance at 39,000

Attachment Bitcoin CME Futures.png (129613 bytes) (Download count: 56)


Feb 4, 2022 10:19:50 AM       
Edit 3 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 4, 2022 5:34:13 PM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James. It's truly uncorrelated.

Feb 6, 2022 11:54:40 AM       
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Scott,

Bitcoin CME futures just broke through the 42,000 resistance.

As long as it stays above 41,000-42,000, the next resistance is at 45,000-46,000 level.

We can see whether the decoupling is occuring when the US equity market opens .

Regards
James

Attachment Bitcoin CME Futures.png (74206 bytes) (Download count: 43)


Feb 6, 2022 5:32:52 PM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 7, 2022 2:44:56 AM
ustonapc
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Jim/Scott,

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 drops 0.4 and 0.8% respectively while Bitcoin rise more than 8.5%.

We are seeing a temporarily decoupling for Bitcoin and the US equity market.

Regards
James

Feb 7, 2022 3:39:53 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by ustonapc at Feb 7, 2022 3:40:36 PM
sgmd01
Re: Bitcoin (PlanB : Stock-to-Flow model and Ben Cowen : Algorithmic Regression Rainbow)

Thank you James
Or maybe it was a temporary coupling between Bitcoin and stocks:)
Bitcoins volatility seems to be due to a combination of the inability to value it and greed/fear

Attachment Bitcoin_Net_Long_2_2022.png (208757 bytes) (Download count: 15) (Everyone went long simultaneously which coincided with the recent large price jump)


Feb 7, 2022 11:27:20 PM       
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