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yuvaltaylor
Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

In addition to the estimate data we already offer, we have made now made available to all Research subscribers the following estimates:

Average EPS estimates for the year after next and the year after that.
Commands:
FY2EPSMean
FY3EPSMean

Average sales estimates for the year after next and the year after that.
Commands:
FY2SalesMean
FY3SalesMean

EBITDA estimates for the current year and the next three years.
Commands:
EBITDAEstCY
EBITDAEstNY
EBITDAEstY2
EBITDAEstY3

Free cash flow estimates for the current year and the next three years.
Commands:
FCFEstCY
FCFEstNY
FCFEstY2
FCFEstY3
This data only goes back to 2011.

Capital expenditure estimates for the current year and the next three years.
Commands:
CapExEstCY
CapExEstNY
CapExEstY2
CapExEstY3
This data only goes back to 2006.

All of these are in the factor reference (https://www.portfolio123.com/doc/doc_factors.jsp).

Please be advised that analyst estimates often use different formulae from GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles), and also from the formulas we use on our website. This is quite noticeable with EPS and EBITDA estimates, but even more so with free cash flow, which is about twice as high as the free cash flow figures we provide. Different analysts will come up with different formulas for free cash flow. In general if analysts deduct dividends, they deduct only preferred dividends, not regular dividends; some of them will deduct all of cap ex and others will deduct only maintenance cap ex. Perhaps some of them add back after-tax interest expenses to come up with FCFF (free cash flow to the firm). And some of them may deduct acquisitions if a firm practices acquisitions on a regular basis. At any rate, the picture is cloudy.

But there are many benefits to using analyst estimates, as analysts take into account company-specific nuances that will escape an analysis based solely on GAAP figures.

These estimates are particularly useful in looking at growth projections, in undertaking discounted cash flow analysis, and in gauging changes in sentiment (by using them in combination with FHist). They are not available for all companies, of course: smaller companies are less likely to be covered, and FY3 numbers are far scarcer than next year’s.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Apr 15, 2020 10:20:57 AM       
primus
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Thank you! I hate it.

By that, I mean I love it, but I have a lot of work to do now.

"The world is. The world is. Love and life are deep maybe as his eyes are wide." - Rush, "Tom Sawyer"

Apr 15, 2020 11:15:02 AM       
InspectorSector
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Thanks Yuvol. Will these factors be available once the switchover in data suppliers is made? And if so, will the analyst data source be different?

SteveA

Apr 15, 2020 11:20:04 AM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Thanks Yuvol. Will these factors be available once the switchover in data suppliers is made? And if so, will the analyst data source be different?

SteveA


Yes, they will. The analyst data source will be FactSet rather than Compustat, and I'm pretty sure we'll have more than ten years' worth of FCF estimate data from them.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Apr 15, 2020 1:01:34 PM       
marco
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

The Factset version of estimates will actually be much better, more powerful, and more complete

It will be in the form of a function like ConsensusEstSale( period , stat, weekago). So for example to check if the Next Fiscal Year Sale Mean has been revised upwards vs. 8 weeks ago you would type

ConsensusEstSale( NY, #mean , 0 ) > ConsensusEstSale( NY, #mean , 8)

For period you will be able to specify: CY,NY,Y2,Y3 , CQ, NQ, TM (twelve months)
For stat you will be able to specify:mean, median , #analysts , hi, lo, stddev , up , down

ALSO....

We're getting ready to make a version of the site ready powered by Factset financials. Everything else Compustat (GICS, estimates, etc)

And soon after that we will launch a version that includes Facset estimates

The final pre-release Facset version will include the rest of the data and their RBICS taxonomy

Portfolio123 Staff.

Apr 15, 2020 1:18:55 PM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by marco at Apr 15, 2020 1:19:50 PM
redshield
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

This is a great addition! How about adding FFO estimates for REITs to the mix?

Apr 15, 2020 1:50:08 PM       
atw
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Hi Marco and Yuval,

Do you have tentative release dates for the three different versions?

It seems like it will be ideal to focus exclusively on the differences between Factset and Compustat financials in the first version, the differences between estimates in the second, and everything else in the third.

It may be frustrating to find oneself in the middle of the financial (Factset vs. Compustat) comparison and have the estimates change unexpectedly before finishing the financial information-related exploration.

On a related front, will any data stay exactly the same? For example, pricing? Institutional ownership? Short interest? Or can we say that everything other than financials and estimates will change in the third version release?

Speaking openly, I would not have wished for this change - there is going to be a lot of work involved, I'm sure - but I also see it as a very interesting one-time opportunity. Given the limited time involved, I want to be as efficient as possible.

Thank you.

Hugh

Apr 15, 2020 5:10:27 PM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Hi Marco and Yuval,

Do you have tentative release dates for the three different versions?

It seems like it will be ideal to focus exclusively on the differences between Factset and Compustat financials in the first version, the differences between estimates in the second, and everything else in the third.

It may be frustrating to find oneself in the middle of the financial (Factset vs. Compustat) comparison and have the estimates change unexpectedly before finishing the financial information-related exploration.

On a related front, will any data stay exactly the same? For example, pricing? Institutional ownership? Short interest? Or can we say that everything other than financials and estimates will change in the third version release?

Speaking openly, I would not have wished for this change - there is going to be a lot of work involved, I'm sure - but I also see it as a very interesting one-time opportunity. Given the limited time involved, I want to be as efficient as possible.

Thank you.

Hugh

While we don't have tentative release dates, all versions will have both FactSet and CompuStat numbers available, so you can choose which numbers to use during the entire process. Pricing data, including volume and bid/ask spreads, will stay pretty much the same. Everything else will be changing.

Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Apr 15, 2020 9:20:05 PM       
WERNER
Re: Sixteen new estimate factors are now available

Thanks. This is a great addition.
Are ETF constituents also on the radar screen and/or coming soon?

Werner

Apr 16, 2020 3:08:05 AM