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Sterling
Re: Viral Facts

Media is so good at sensationalizing. Proning is nothing new; it's a common ICU technique to recruit sick lung tissue. I'm sure it was tried day 1 everywhere.


Unfortunately not everyone has been able to make it to the hospital. If this is well-known this is the kind of information that needs to be disseminated but for some reason isn't.

Apr 14, 2020 7:59:45 PM       
InspectorSector
Re: Viral Facts

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-pee...-responding-to-treatment/

Apr 17, 2020 9:17:09 AM       
nisser
Re: Viral Facts

https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/pulmcrit-eleven-r...mdesivir-reveals-nothing/

The quality of the paper in NEJM is absolutely shameful; shame on the editors for letting this through. I wouldn't let this be published in the Journal of Scandinavian potato farming.

Apr 17, 2020 2:42:21 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by nisser at Apr 17, 2020 2:44:06 PM
Chipper6
Re: Viral Facts

Ivermectin is showing to be very promising for treatment of Covid 19. 70% reduction in deaths for those treated with it in a study.

The principal outcome was to assess the association of ivermectin administration with survival in COVID-19.

Results:
The cohort (including 704 ivermectin treated and 704 controls) was derived from 169 hospitals across 3 continents with COVID-19 illness. The patients were matched for age, sex, race or ethnicity, comorbidities and a illness severity score (qSOFA). Of those requiring mechanical ventilation fewer patients died in the ivermectin group (7.3% versus 21.3%) and overall death rates were lower with ivermectin (1.4% versus 8.5%; HR 0.20 CI 95% 0.11-0.37, p<0.0001).


Newspaper article
Paper

Apr 22, 2020 11:30:12 AM       
Jrinne
Re: Viral Facts

Ivermectin is showing to be very promising for treatment of Covid 19. 70% reduction in deaths for those treated with it in a study.

Thanks Chaim. Very interesting study.

I thought this was a good review of some other medications with varying potential: JAMA Review Article

Best,

Jim

From time to time you will encounter Luddites, who are beyond redemption.
--de Prado, Marcos López on the topic of machine learning for financial applications

Apr 22, 2020 7:22:28 PM       
Chipper6
Re: Viral Facts

Ivermectin is showing to be very promising for treatment of Covid 19. 70% reduction in deaths for those treated with it in a study.

Thanks Chaim. Very interesting study.

I thought this was a good review of some other medications with varying potential: JAMA Review Article

Best,

Jim
Thanks. I skimmed through it. Interesting. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, why did this review omit zinc from its discussions about findings for the HCQ/azithromycin regimen? It's almost like there is a bias against minerals and in favor of pharmacological treatments.

As someone who did not have formal training in medicine, but has experience in vetting studies, I love to see all kinds of spaghetti thrown at the wall (assuming there is some putative theory and low risk to the patient), find what sticks with a very open mind, try to figure out why it worked, and then run better studies using the exact same regimen which was reported to have success.

Apr 22, 2020 11:05:27 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Chipper6 at Apr 23, 2020 12:05:44 AM
Sterling
Re: Viral Facts

Don't know but someone I read who looked at the way zinc supposedly works with HCQ was skeptical about the mechanism put forth. He thought the theory of HCQ acting as an ionophore was dubious because the dosage necessary in his opinion would be too high to work as theorized in real life. He said it was far more likely that HCQ if effective worked by raising the pH of the cell.

But I doubt anyone really knows.

Other drugs have backers willing to fund studies.

What I am curious about is whether South Korea and Malaysia which I have heard it implied were using HCQ and zinc in combination are having success and why we aren't hearing anything from them. Their death rates are pretty low.

Apr 23, 2020 5:06:03 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Sterling at Apr 23, 2020 5:07:43 AM
Chipper6
Re: Viral Facts

Don't know but someone I read who looked at the way zinc supposedly works with HCQ was skeptical about the mechanism put forth. He thought the theory of HCQ acting as an ionophore was dubious because the dosage necessary in his opinion would be too high to work as theorized in real life. He said it was far more likely that HCQ if effective worked by raising the pH of the cell.

But I doubt anyone really knows.

Other drugs have backers willing to fund studies.

What I am curious about is whether South Korea and Malaysia which I have heard it implied were using HCQ and zinc in combination are having success and why we aren't hearing anything from them. Their death rates are pretty low.


This is not a knock on medical professionals. I believe that medical professionals as a group are among the smartest and most dedicated people around. But I see this in all disciplines. People focus too much on theories and not on data. My investment results have gone up exponentially once I started building my theories around the data instead of the other way around.

Two of the most successful clinical trials included zinc in the regimen. Yes, those clinical trials had flaws. But the results were so good that even after adjusting for the flaws the results were still extraordinary. Yet, instead of trying to replicate the exact same regimen, I was seeing a lot of studies that took out zinc, or tried using HCQ in patients presenting with ARDS, then reported less than stellar results, and these studies were used to prove that HCQ doesn't work.

Why not try to replicate exactly what worked using well designed studies?

I believe that at this stage, theory is secondary. Data is first. But I can throw out a theory to explain why HCQ would help zinc. The CEO of the company that did the modern research on Cloroquine says that Cloroquine is metabolized by the same enzyme in the liver as azythromycin. Presumably HCQ is also metabolized by that same enzyme. If so, then the effective dosage of HCQ is amplified when taken in conjunction with azythromycin. This may explain some things.

Let's build theories around the data and not the other way around.

Apr 23, 2020 9:34:08 AM       
Edit 3 times, last edit by Chipper6 at Apr 23, 2020 1:52:43 PM
MisterChang
Re: Viral Facts

I was buying stocks aggressively throughout this entire crisis, and now even more so.

1-hour discussion with 2 doctors:
-As data comes in, the virus is no worse than the flu.
-The models vastly over-predicted the deaths, even the models that included social distancing.
-Quarantining the sick is effective. Quarantining the healthy does not help.
-Quarantining the healthy weakens their immune system. When the economy opens back up, there will be a surge in sick people.
-Economy shut-down is causing a rise in domestic violence, drug abuse, alcoholism, suicide, and these are "significantly more detrimental" to society than the virus.
-Doctors are pressured to inflate the numbers of death due to covid 19.

https://www.facebook.com/KGET17News/videos/537566680274166/?v=537566680274166
(I was able to watch the video without logging into facebook).

What the heck do I know, I'm just a random guy on the internet, but I maintain that this media-driven panic is an excellent buying opportunity, and in a few months, the media cycle will move on to the next hot topic. Of course, the obvious caveat is that whatever you are buying must survive long enough to benefit from the rebound.

Apr 25, 2020 5:29:52 PM       
InspectorSector
Re: Viral Facts

Hospitals are being rewarded for declaring Covid-19

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck...s-coronavirus/3000638001/

Apr 25, 2020 6:36:09 PM       
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