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Re: Viral Facts

I know why I don’t read this forum. Looks like a medical forum with more “experts” debating posting random articles. How is this relevant to investing?

Apr 25, 2020 7:33:47 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Schm1347 at Apr 25, 2020 7:35:12 PM
Re: Viral Facts

Some hope for a vaccine (NY Times):

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead
As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

Apr 27, 2020 10:53:40 PM       
Re: Viral Facts

How is this thread relevant? Directly, it is relevant because we need to be aware of what is going on and what to expect. The shutdowns do affect the markets after all.

Indirectly, because many of the most successful investors have a broad knowledge of many fields.

On a personal note, and I am not speaking for others, but myself, this thread has been very beneficial to me. Some background: my clients have outperformed the benchmark in four of the last five years (the fifth year we also outperformed, but before fees). Our performance is in the top 1% in the industry. For me personally, my old hobby of analyzing medical breakthroughs and medical studies may have played a big part in my investment success.

As you probably know, many medical "discoveries" are later dis-proven. This is especially prevalent in mainstream media reporting of medical studies, which tries to oversimplify all news into a soundbite or a tweet. But medical studies are often nuanced in ways that cannot be effectively communicated in soundbites. The end result is that people who only pay casual attention to medical news often don't even know what the studies showed.

Analyzing medical research on selected topics and watching the changes to those conclusions over the years has given me sixth sense for anticipating what is likely to work and for knowing when a study is likely to be meaningful. This experience adds a great deal of value in investing.

In fact, I find that this experience has been more useful to my investing success than using cutting edge statistics to calculate p-values and such which are only as useful as the underlying data and study design.

In that vein, the discussion in this thread has been very helpful to me personally in reminding me what my investment edge is.

Chaim Gewirtz
Founder and CIO
Lakewealth Capital

Apr 28, 2020 8:50:36 AM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by Chipper6 at Apr 28, 2020 2:13:22 PM
Re: Viral Facts

good post. Being a specialist or concentrating in a certain market segment and become familiar with its intricacies is indeed still very helpful. In the medical field, changes in diagnostics, technology and therapy are just as lightning fast as in high-tech. Therefore good opportunities (including risks) are always there.
A good example is the Corona vaccine: Whoever will be first with a marketable safe and efficient vaccine will make it big.

Apr 28, 2020 11:52:25 AM       
Re: Viral Facts

Unless Pepcid ends up being the cure.

Apr 28, 2020 1:15:21 PM       
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