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kumar
Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

Steve/Inspector Sector,

You have figured out how to use P123 PROFITABLY for last 3 years by taking advantages of institutional money manager ideas on liquid stocks.

your model nailed it to invest profitably.
here, screen shot is for reference.

For last few years. You are very calm in this forum. Your designer model performance speaks your hard work all the years.

Steve, Please help me to follow your path.

1. My question is without revision can we use inList in designer model
How the backtest can be performed for 10 years using the inList.

2. 3 times per year - rebalancing of the deisginer model will sell all the existing stocks and buy it with equal balance of investment.
after the rebalance all of your 5 positions will have $2000 each in $1000 portfolio.

Believe, this hybrid concept on liquid stocks designer model will outperform the benchmark always. as it is best of the best stocks are recommended by model.
1. The stocks are screened manually as good candidate, weeds are out using systematic process as financial institute does.
2. Applying P123 for backtesting using ranking and buy and sell rule.
3. We are assured the stock picking is not 1 dimensional.

1. Financial DATA is not reliable 100%. There will be tuning here and there. as individual investor can't spend millions on perfect data.
2. Hybrid model set a way to have more freedom to filtered out bad companies at top.
3. My 10 stocks designer models are 5 stocks extreme performance and another 5 stocks extreme under performance. If i use Hybrid system. i might give better performance with less volatility.

I have 3 years of stock picking experience for yearly holding. Believe this hybrid skills improve my designer model performance and confident on my investing.

Steve,
Please, help

More good designer(better than bench mark with less volatility) models in p123 will have more subscribers to p123 and more visibility your successful model Steve.

Thank you for your valuable time and kind helps.
Kumar

Attachment 3. Hybrid system with inList and yearly 3 times rebalance works for last 3 years.png (111811 bytes) (Download count: 84)


Attachment 2. Hybrid System performance 70 pct in last 3 years.png (122270 bytes) (Download count: 85)


Attachment 1. Use of Inlist of Companies in Designer Model since March 2017.png (88736 bytes) (Download count: 84)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jan 14, 2020 5:55:34 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by kumar at Jan 14, 2020 6:03:12 AM
Jrinne
Re: Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

Kumar,

Your models are keeping up with their benchmarks: excellent by designer model standards in this market!!!!

If you decide to compare to other designers make sure to take into account any survivorship bias. I have not kept track of this for any individual designers but I think it does exist at P123. When it exists, it is not a fair comparison to your models, I think.

Summary, you are doing well.

-Jim

From time to time you will encounter Luddites, who are beyond redemption.
--de Prado, Marcos López on the topic of machine learning for financial applications

Jan 14, 2020 6:00:22 AM       
Edit 4 times, last edit by Jrinne at Jan 14, 2020 6:10:59 AM
kumar
Re: Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

Jrinne,

Thank you for your positive feedback.

with comparing to professional money manager and QQQ performance.

As individual investor we have more freedom to include ideas to get profit.

=======================
I know where the under performance comes in my model year by year every year and now looking for how to avoid.
=======================

I feel i can improve 20% more in performance with less volatility in my model by filtering out worst performing industry using inList.

Please, kindly suggest any idea to figure my redline industry using industry factor / industry ranks.

Thanks
Kumar

Attachment Kumar SP500 Relative Strength Model Current Holdings Performance as on 2020_01_14.png (66448 bytes) (Download count: 85)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jan 14, 2020 6:08:00 AM       
Edit 4 times, last edit by kumar at Jan 14, 2020 6:21:35 AM
InspectorSector
Re: Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

Kumar - just for the record. I am extremely impressed with your performance in the 2019 stock-picking contest. You don't really need anything from me :-) I'll try to answer your questions the best I can.

My question is without revision can we use inList in designer model


Yes, you can use InLists in your DMs and you can modify the InList without a revision being made. Out of courtesy to your subscribers, you should let them know this is what you are doing. Unless it is a minor revision to your InList that doesn't affect the holdings or strategy.

Do not abuse this ability to modify the InList or P123 will take it away.

How the backtest can be performed for 10 years using the inList.


You can't backtest with any historical accuracy. I typically backtest 5 years to get some idea how well the ranking system works, but it is in no means a historically accurate portrayal.

3 times per year - rebalancing of the deisginer model will sell all the existing stocks and buy it with equal balance of investment.
after the rebalance all of your 5 positions will have $2000 each in $1000 portfolio.


That is correct. It was supposted to be quarterly but I screwed up the math.

Believe, this hybrid concept on liquid stocks designer model will outperform the benchmark always. as it is best of the best stocks are recommended by model.


The success of these models is because I chose to follow macro-trends, not necessarily because I am riding on the back of an ETF. I may underperform the ETF but still make good money because of the macrotrend. You also need to choose ETFs that you believe in. There are some style ETFs that I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. If you really want to be successful, start with the MOAT ETF constituents and build a P123 port around that. I think you would be quite successful.

SteveA

Jan 14, 2020 9:24:56 AM       
kumar
cool Re: Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

Steve,

I am very much impressed with your 2 of the 5 stocks model with your longer term theme and macro trend. 70%+ return over 3 years.
The model has more trust now.
More than the performance, I like your patience and progress from not working model to working model, never-give up attitude.

Thank your for your appreciation on my 2019 stock picking contest performance 35%+ in 2 of my manual stocking picking, runner-up 2nd and 3rd place in 2019.
2017 my stock pick performed 32%+ and won the competition.
All of my models are more liquid.

Even if i use InList, i will follow some rules.
1. Update InList Quarterly Once.
2. Try include NOT in List to my existing models which is backtested without any filter. to avoid stocks from unfavorable industry.

I will stay with liquid model and little better than bench mark performance with less volatility.

I am looking for convert my manual stock picking ability to designer model with quarterly re-balance.

1. 1 model with large growth stock.
2. another model with midcap growth stock.

Please, suggest, It is good to make my 20 stocks annual stock pick competition universe into 5 stock model with quarterly manual re-balance.
Even this 5 stocks perform 20% better return than 20 stocks annual holding, it will be worth the DM.

Even my model will work; i need to wait for few years with patience as you did.
I understand from you, No short cuts to hard-work , be patience and need to stay positive and keep working to achieve success as your DM model performance.

Thanks
Kumar cool

Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jan 14, 2020 10:25:04 AM       
Edit 4 times, last edit by kumar at Jan 14, 2020 10:49:36 AM
InspectorSector
Re: Inspector Sector's models are example for hybrid system - It is working for last 3 years and continue to work.

1. 1 model with large growth stock.
2. another model with midcap growth stock.

Please, suggest, It is good to make my 20 stocks annual stock pick competition universe into 5 stock model with quarterly manual re-balance.
Even this 5 stocks perform 20% better return than 20 stocks annual holding, it will be worth the DM.


The reason for supplying 5 stock DMs is so subscribers can diversify their risk using multiple portfolios with different themes or industries. The ports should have different holdings.

So I have some concern that you will convert from a 20 stock port to a 5 stock port but the theme is going to be "large-cap" or "mid-cap". How is a subscriber going to figure out if your largecap port is going to overlap with all the other largecap DMs out there? Diversification dowsn't work if a subscriber has to load up on multiple (generic) largecap ports, whether they are 5 stock ports or 25 stocks.

Jan 14, 2020 11:17:01 AM