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kumar
smile Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Seven sister,

use XLE for timing and buy the best growth stock in the oil industry VLO.
VLO is went from $40 to $120 = 300% return between 2016 to 2019.
even someone catches one third of the move 100% in 3 years; still he will be better than average investor.

===============================================================
Fortune is made on growth stocks not on indexes/sector.
To protect the fortune need to follow the sector footprint for the appropriate investment condition.
VLO is come down to $40 in March 2020 from $120 July 2020 peak
===============================================================

Please, help to refer VLO chart in my previous post in this forum thread.

Thanks,
Kumar smile

Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

May 6, 2020 5:39:08 AM       
Edit 5 times, last edit by kumar at May 6, 2020 5:57:00 AM
kumar
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Chipper6
Good results! Did you pick the stocks for the contest based on charts?
===========

Chipper6, I did choose the stocks for the contest based on charts alone in 2018 and failed to perform.

I use growth fundamentals earnings and some fundamental filters around 10 criteria.
I did not do technical filters; but the charts are looks great as i filtered. except few stocks.

I believe fundamentals are to filter the candidate to 50 to 100 stocks symbols. can be used p123 tools.
then home work to do pick the 20 stocks using past experience and grow as investor every year.

Chipper6 you are more experienced, believe you might of better process and stock selection method.
If don't mind, please help to share only the process.

Thanks,
Kumar cool

Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

May 6, 2020 6:20:52 AM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by kumar at May 6, 2020 6:22:45 AM
Chipper6
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Kumar, you're doing pretty good for yourself.

Personally, I find that because I used to read many stock writeups that were written by good value investors (for example on the Value Investors Club site) I have an edge in developing good value based systems.

I apologize, but I am not sure that I understand what you wrote, so please allow me to summarize what I think you wrote, and let me know if I got it right: Did you use charts by itself for the 2018 contest, but then used charts in conjunction with fundamental earnings growth and other fundamentals for the 2019 and 2020 contests?

May 6, 2020 11:21:20 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Chipper6 at May 7, 2020 9:18:50 AM
kumar
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Chipper6,

I have already spent around 10 years on value investing. may be holding time required to be 10-20 years for value investing.
Can you find any value based midcap/largecap ETF or mutual fund which outperformed QQQ or SPY for last 5 years.

1. my first DM system is pure value factor which 52 weeks low (in ranking).
1. my second DM systems is relative strength with all value factor which will buy 6 month high (in ranking).

I have spent few hundreds of hours to design my value designer models. In simulation obtained 67% winning percentage with 2:1 win loose ratio on SP500 universe. on both these 2 systems.
the system is developed over 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 period in iteration for improvement; but not able to get out performance better than SP500 in out of sample.

Then i learned growth investing from William O'Neil followers and some others; Need to be in best industry and best sector in order to invest in growth stocks;

I grasped some ideas from p123 forum.
Like SteveA(SectorInspector) implement 2 models;

1. Cloud technology model (technology sector is top performing sector for last 4 years), cloud is next generation software development. Salesforce CRM, MSFT, ADBE return more than 200% in last 4 years.
2. Aerospace and Defense model (Republican government will spend more money on these industries in government budget).

my 20 picks won 2017 competition all of the stocks are like AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, CRM, MSFT, etc.,
last year 2nd with similar large cap names.

I am not applying technical explicitly; I am applying earning growths; I suggest value investor to learn growth investing.
even Mr.Warran Buffet holds AMZN, AAPL stocks. AMZN never had P/E < 50 for last 10 years it returned 10 times; AAPL P/E > 20 for last 3 years it returned 100%.

if i want to give suggestion to new individual investor; don't focus on small cap and value stocks which may be for long term investor or professional investor who have access to the company in and out.

To invest in AMZN, AAPL, MSFT
i no need to do any research; and run simulation for hours. just aware of what the is company doing and whether it is growing it's earning and revenue every year and every quarter.

Technical analysis will help you to enter and exit; but for this 2020 year competition; we need hold for 1 year period; i am visualizing using chart how the stock keep growing beyond 52 week highs.

Best of my knowledge value investor execute trade at 52 week low as buy point, 52 week high as sell point. to come-out from this behavior; it took me years. it is a transition to become a growth investor.

Thanks,
Kumar

Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

May 7, 2020 4:58:25 AM       
Edit 8 times, last edit by kumar at May 7, 2020 8:22:09 AM
kumar
smile Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

performance as on June 10, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar

Attachment Current Returns of the 2020 Portfolio as on 2020_06_11.png (97222 bytes) (Download count: 181)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jun 11, 2020 10:53:22 AM       
kumar
smile Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

performance for 2020 Q1 and Q2 as on June 30, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar smile

Attachment P123 - 20 Stocks pick competition results after Q2 as on June 30 2020.png (98409 bytes) (Download count: 151)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jul 1, 2020 11:41:08 AM       
kumar
smile Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

performance as on July 31, 2020.

Thanks,
Kumar smile

Attachment Current Returns of the 2020 Portfolio as on 2020_07_31.png (96971 bytes) (Download count: 115)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Aug 3, 2020 12:19:37 AM       
yuvaltaylor
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

And the winners are:

Tied for first place: Kumar and Kiplinger's, both with a return of 77.7%. Kumar specialized in mid-caps this year.

Third place: Walter (wwasilev), with a return of 45.7%.

Fourth place: Aaron (bompus)'s NASDAQ 100 picks, with a return of 41.6%.

Fifth place: Ryan (rtelford)'s small and microcap picks, with a return of 26.2%.

Hearty congratulations to all!

Attachment Screenshot_2021-01-01 Live Strategy - Portfolio123.png (51307 bytes) (Download count: 63)


Yuval Taylor
Product Manager, Portfolio123
invest(igations)
Any opinions or recommendations in this message are not opinions or recommendations of Portfolio123 Securities LLC.

Jan 1, 2021 2:24:14 PM       
rtelford
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Congrats everyone, and good show Kumar! I'm happy to come in the top 5!

Cheers,
Ryan

Ryan Telford -- also find me at:
Seeking Alpha
Twitter

Jan 3, 2021 4:25:44 PM       
Jim101
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

This is now posted in the 2021 thread.

I'm in for 2021, although my strategies were not quite finished.

P123 Stock Picking Contest: 2021 Jim101(2)

Jim

If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.

Jan 3, 2021 7:15:22 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by Jim101 at Jan 4, 2021 10:31:04 AM
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