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kumar
smile Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

After historic down week,

The 2020 portfolio performance for last 2 months; it is interesting to watch for this year.

On Taking Risks – Be Smart About It!
“Never test the depth of the water with both feet.”

The Right Company Will Bring You The Right Results
“It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.”

I find mgerstein and stockmarket student (steve) are right company in p123 and deal with sp500 and large company where all the riches makes money every year.

It is hard to find and recognize RIGHT COMPANY with honesty in stock market.

mgerstein - mentoring in designing model right way using fundamental and save novice investor from costly mistakes.
stockmarket student (steve) - designing highly successful designer model with more liquidity, less turn over and less draw down. he uses fundamental and long term theme which he learn from his life time.
Yuvaltaylor(microcap) and Walter(Largecap) - sharing their success thru designer model.
Yuvaltaylor - More research always and out of the box ideas his areas is not limited to p123;
Kiplinger 20 stocks in 2020 competition his finding and Yuvaltayolor is initiator of yearly stock competition in Dec 2016.

I am directly benefited in this yearly stock competition and cultivating trading/investment patient for 1 year holding is not easy task.

This 1 week draw down and may be next 3 months draw down are temporary staying invested for long term is what makes is the great Mr. Warran Buffet;

Thanks
Kumar

Attachment Current Returns of the 2020 Portfolio as on 2020_02_29.png (69319 bytes) (Download count: 214)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Feb 29, 2020 10:05:00 AM       
Edit 2 times, last edit by kumar at Feb 29, 2020 11:39:42 AM
kumar
cool Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

performance after another roller- coaster week.

Thanks
Kumar

Attachment Current Returns of the 2020 Portfolio as on 2020_03_07 Another Roller Coaster Week.png (67398 bytes) (Download count: 191)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Mar 7, 2020 8:23:38 AM       
kumar
cool Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

cool

Attachment P123 Stock Picking Contest -2020.png (97944 bytes) (Download count: 161)


Attachment P123 20 Stock Picking Strategy break even for the year.png (82295 bytes) (Download count: 161)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Apr 21, 2020 6:17:30 AM       
sevensisters
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Kumar,

I see my portfolio on the bottom of the list - no wonder as it is quite exposed to oil.

Interestingly your quote of Warren Buffet below (see attached) - both him and I bought Oxy in Q4 2019 - now worth around 60% less...

Attachment capture.jpg (37490 bytes) (Download count: 118)


Apr 25, 2020 3:04:38 PM       
kumar
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Sevensisters,

I have attended a 2 days bootcamp from a 1981 Standford MBA graduate and he is full-time investor cum trader.
His sage advice is stay away from Energy and RealEstate. as these industries are heavily manipulated by supply and demand by many countries. It won't follow financial data.
Instead of buying stocks; he suggested owning energy company and real estate property if you want to allocate capital on these assets.

Mr.Warran Buffet methodology is value investing. I am immersed and drowned in value investing for many years.
It is for big money and life time investing like 10 years and 20 years horizons.

For individual investor, growth is right way to go.
Here, I am attaching for reference, value is buy beaten down stocks. as individual investor i can't turn the beaten down stocks but Mr.Warran Buffet's money flow can in 5 to 10 years time.
I don't have his capital and patience to move the stocks.

====================================
It took me 11 years to understand,

the world's investment noise to public is opened with

(1) Either Mr.Warran Buffet, Mr.Peter Lynch, etc., kind of investing, buy and hold like forever 10 years and 20 years horizon.
15%- 20% avg return over 20 years time as a world's greatest investment record for multiple decades without emotion keep investing on good fundamental companies.

(2) Or Day trader/ Weekly trader/ Monthly trader who keep buying and selling without knowing anything just following all the news and following Gurus who are making a living on selling books and giving training for novice investors as day trading experts.

(3) But, the successful secretive investors are living between these 2 extremes without making any noise to the public. 5% to 10% of the elite investors.

I did lot of mistakes like
following Mr. Warren Buffet stocks for few weeks, few months to 1 years holding. It is intended for multiple years.
following day trader ideas for holding multiple months and 1 year and burn down.

One have to define time frame and his stock picking and mindset should be stable as 12 months holdings.
should not get compared and compete with day trader or Mr. Warren Buffet (Life time holdings as buying home/gold ornaments).
===============================================

It is extremely hard to get rid of old habits and believe on new concepts and build new successful habits; It will take time, even years.
Here, i am attaching 2 screens. By sharing this value stock (OXY) vs growth stock (SHOP),
Hope, I will follow my rules with discipline and emotional control by sharing knowledge to you.

============ Value Investing for last 10 years under performed growth investing by 50% attached IVW Growth and IVE Value Performance chart for reference ==========
OXY will be great performer in 10 years time, if not in 10 years, at least in 20-30 year times,
smile at worst case, even OXY got bank corrupt; as holding 50+ stocks, it is only 2% of my assets.
That is value investing and Mr. Warren Buffet ideas.
Never loose money by selling stock on scary environment.
=====================================================================

SHOP is growth investing. best performing sector Technology, best performing industry Software. SHOP - Online shopping. in current environment work from home and stay at home.
This growth stocks even looks attractive. Growth Story strengthen Growth Stocks further.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHOP is my top performing pick for this 20 stocks pick competition for this year year 2020.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Growth idea is 180 degree paradigm shift in thinking process.
==========================================
Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is applicable to me as well. I love to buy 52 weeks low and scare to buy 52 weeks high.
I am working on change my thinking process and attitude and go along and become comfortable to buy 52 weeks high and become successful growth investor.
===================================================================================================

All of my designer models are value based. I believed in value (Buy low and Sell High). but end up with Buying Low and Selling at Extremely Low as OXY chart.

while 2017, 2019 and 2020 my stocks picks are growth based manual picks. it performed better than most of the bench marks.

In 2018, i went with old habits picking bouncing stocks from 52 weeks low with good fundamentals and technicals. it performed worst than bench mark.

Writing journal is one of the best way to learn by one's mistakes and one's success.

As I am learning from your OXY energy stock experience.
I believe, my experience will helps you and others to learn as well.

YuvalTaylor ideas of this yearly stock picking competition makes me better investor over last 4 years period and stay aligning with 1 year sweet spot holdings.

Sorry, accidentally, i have attached the charts twice.

Thanks, cool
Kumar

Attachment OXY-All Sector, Industry and Stocks in Down trend.png (93520 bytes) (Download count: 93)


Attachment SHOP-All Sector, Industry and Stocks in UP trend.png (91277 bytes) (Download count: 93)


Attachment OXY-All Sector, Industry and Stocks in Down trend.png (93520 bytes) (Download count: 93)


Attachment SHOP-All Sector, Industry and Stocks in UP trend.png (91277 bytes) (Download count: 92)


Attachment IVW - S&P500 Growth ETF 250% Return and IVE - S&P500 Value ETF 125% return.png (42560 bytes) (Download count: 90)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Apr 27, 2020 10:19:49 PM       
Edit 16 times, last edit by kumar at Apr 28, 2020 6:54:43 AM
sevensisters
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

As I am learning from your OXY energy stock experience.
I believe, my experience will helps you and others to learn as well.


Kumar,

I don't know how long you are in the stock market but I have been in there since 2001, so long enough to see how things are going and to judge why one stock is a better buy than another. That is also the case with OXY which will emerge as a stronger player after the crisis and numerous bankruptcies in the shale oil sector.

Apr 28, 2020 3:27:25 PM       
kumar
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Sevensister,

I am a first generation exposed to stock markets since March 2009.

I am engaged little more after joining with P123 for last 6 years.

I have learned technical analysis and growth stocks from very successful investors. (they started their investing at age of 16, now they are 70+).
I believe education from right people make me better investor.

I have find growth stocks and technical analysis is way to go for 6 months to 2 years holdings.
Here, VLO oil stocks chart for the illustration; I am looking for this kind of profits. and It is my trading plan.

It is Wyckoffian technical analysis the accumulation in the box and followed by a break out.

can you describe your trading plan on OXY chart.

Thanks,
Kumar

Attachment VLO-Gorwth Stocks Buy Break Outs for 50 percent to 100 percent return in few years time.png (55528 bytes) (Download count: 86)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Apr 28, 2020 4:05:06 PM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by kumar at Apr 28, 2020 4:24:03 PM
kumar
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Seven sister,

I understand you took the nick name because of oil industry.

You never looked technical ? Here, 20 years for XLE energy sector.

I will buy oil stocks only, if XLE cross above 50% line in STO as shown in this chart.

Thanks,
Kumar

Attachment XLE-20 Years Monthly Chart- I will buy if STO crosses above 50.png (76881 bytes) (Download count: 62)


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

May 3, 2020 3:47:38 PM       
Chipper6
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?

Kumar,

Good results! Did you pick the stocks for the contest based on charts?

May 3, 2020 5:58:24 PM       
sevensisters
Re: Top 20 Stock Picking Contest 2020?


I will buy oil stocks only, if XLE cross above 50% line in STO as shown in this chart.


Kumar,
you are using hindsight and even then you would not have made any money between 2016 and 2019.

May 5, 2020 11:55:13 PM       
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