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So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

Should I be out of the market now and return in October? Any thoughts? All are welcome.


Jun 5, 2019 12:45:39 PM       
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

Yes, see Sell in May and Go Away - 6-month Investor (no trading of stocks)

Also the average return from 1950 for the 6-month May-Oct is only 2.69%.

Jun 5, 2019 1:52:58 PM       
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

XLP, xlu, and xlv bond tlt tends to perform good between June and October.

World is globe, it never be darkness at all over the globe at the same time. There is always an opportunity who look and constantly work for.

When stocks tanks bonds and gold will have ride.


Warren Buffett — 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing'
'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks'

Jun 5, 2019 3:46:29 PM       
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

Id say yes, GDP and Inflation are tanking (rate of Change wise) at the same time, good Environment for bonds (Long TLT), utilities but it is risk off time until inflation and or gdp go (rate of Change wise) up again

I am out of the market

Jun 6, 2019 7:52:47 AM       
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

Are you talking about US GDP tanking? The FRED 'Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate' for Q1/19 was 3.1%. Is there newer data out there?

Jun 6, 2019 8:18:11 AM       
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

I am out of the market

The year of the presidential term also appears to influence the return for good- and bad 6-mo periods. Here are the average inflation adjusted returns from 1950 and 1999 onward.

Unfortunately we have to wait about 3.5 years for the best 6-mo period to reoccur. We are out of it since end of April. That period starting in the 2nd year never showed a loss, ever. This is when you go for leveraged investments.

The bad-period avg. returns in the 3rd year (the one that we are in now) do not look encouraging. We shall see end of October whether history repeats itself.

Interesting that in the first presidential year the bad-period's avg. returns are similar to those of the good-periods.

Attachment real 6-mo returns Presidential Term.png (66602 bytes) (Download count: 50)

Jun 6, 2019 9:47:01 AM       
Edit 4 times, last edit by geov at Jun 6, 2019 9:56:39 AM
Re: So, is this a 'Go Away in May' year?

This also holds for the DAX. Here is the average monthly return for the DAX since 1964.
For the six months from May to end of October the return is -0.93%.

Attachment DAX sell in May.png (51050 bytes) (Download count: 22)

Jun 17, 2019 11:01:43 AM       
Edit 1 times, last edit by geov at Jun 17, 2019 11:14:51 AM