7% Drawdown

got a 7% DD, -1% for the year, how are your ports doing?

Still 130% Long, since earnings trend up…

This DD appears to be about 12% for me (so far).

Roughly 12-13% drawdown for my IB account (in Euros) so far. But the drawdown for my US models (in dollars) is around 17% and approx -9% for the year… ouch.

A pretty significant portion of my US holdings were oil&gas or related. They went up a lot in the first two weeks of the year, but were also hit quite hard in the past weeks.

Right at 8% for me.

If you are using a diversified plan as I am, I have been wondering if Bonds would smooth out the equity curve as it traditionally has. Well, my answer is maybe not this time. Gold may be a better choice.

About 9% overall, -3% YTD

anybody getting into cash?
Kind of interesting this time, because earnings are trending up a lot like hell. My timing stays in the market as long this the case.
I have to say, I never saw an environment like this, has anybody?

No, my indicators have not yet flagged a change in market regime. I am almost always running constantly hedged portfolios (ca. 50% net exposure) and I am not changing the overall net exposure.

With this vola explosion a lot of short volatility market participants had and have to cover exposure such as risk parity funds, CTA/trend followers. In addition, there may also be some larger players (which we don’t know yet) that are probably in the process of winding down or are heavily cutting exposure due to drawdowns or margin calls.

I’ve been running with extra cash for a while and have started to nibble on stocks that I keep in a crash list. I have to admit, every buy gets cheaper the next day and that’s a bit frustrating.

I agree with the increasing earnings trend, but the market is expensive, too. On the other hand, tax cuts should be good for investors and the worldwide economy looks to be picking up.

I expect another 5% decline in the S&P 500, so most of the damage has been done.

Walter

Credit spreads have been widening. Yield curve has been rising. Still above 200 SMA last time I looked. Everything looks good except for price. :slight_smile:

Real question is what to move assets into… Paul Tudor Jones – “I would rather hold hot coal than US Treasuries”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-tudor-jones-id-rather-holding-hot-coal-u-s-treasury-bonds-165831890.html

Kinda sympathetic to the idea that we’re reverting back to the trendline on the 2 year chart, before the over-exuberance from the tax cuts … which probably should have been already priced in


Yesterday my drawdown was 9.4%. As of end-of-day today, YTD: -0.7%.

I have no idea if this correction will become a bear or not. My strategy remains the same either way: just do the same thing I’ve always done. No cash. I’m only going to switch tactics (slightly) if I think a recession is coming, and I don’t see signals of that yet. But a bear market can cause a recession. It’s happened before.

Thank you all, will Keep this thread alive from time to time depending on how things develop…
Yesterday there was some buying at the 200 MA of the sp500, lets see…

The drawdown across my portfolio was -10.7% without a hedge. I got away with -8.2% due to SPX puts on futures put in place at Monday’s close. Thanks everyone for sharing.

The macro picture does not look good. The historic trend forecasts a probable loss of about 15% for S&P-real to Jan-2020. (As of writing Feb. 9 the market has already given up about 6% from January’s average value.) The worst scenario would be a possible loss of about 55%, and the best outcome would be a 65% gain from the January level. Probable real return to Jan-2020 = -10%

I just posted this update.
Deja Vu 2007 — Is the Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond, Update Jan-2018
https://imarketsignals.com/2018/deja-vu-2007-stock-market-overvalued-estimating-returns-2020-beyond-update-jan-2018/

I am sure the market turns on me next week/month, my max drawdown this year was only ~2% in €. YTD up 7%, but i am 105% long, 80% short and currency hedged into undervalued currencies so not really a fair comparison. And my last two years really sucked, so don`t ask. :slight_smile:

6,14 % Today, off the lows, Break even for the year, lets see…

There was a seven-year span from 1991-1998 that for me was a lot like today. Everything was clicking for businesses, the economy was robust, and the market was kicking butt - with low volatility. It was easy just to sit back and make money hand over fist. Pick and ride a winner (they were everywhere), sell it as it got expensive, then get on the next pony and repeat.

It’s hard to compare anything to the 1982-2000 bull market, with a 1200% performance in the S&P that has never occurred before in history and perhaps never will again. We can hope this “easy money” experiment that’s been going on for the last nine years is not going to end as it did in 2000 and 2007, but I would say it’s probably likely.

Chris

I got a 5% DD, how are you doing? Up 10% for the year (with FX Exchange wins, without around 5%). Still long here 100%, since capital curve did not prduce a lower high…

Sell in May and Go Away seems to be proven correct again. Additionally it does not help that we are in an election year.

Per this viewthread of May-18-2018:
https://www.portfolio123.com/mvnforum/viewthread_thread,11234_offset,0
The odds are poor for good stock market returns over the next 6 month.

On average, all the returns of the S&P 500 are made during the seasonally six strong months, November to April.
The market shows zero return on average over the seasonally poor months, from May to October.

For election years (even years) the absolute return of the S&P 500 for the 6-month period prior to election (May-Oct):
34 samples excluding best and worst return periods, average return= 0.46%


My P123 ports are up about 8.5% ytd after peak DDs of about -8.5%. Still 100% long. Interesting to see the ytd of RSP is 0.9% while SPY is up 4.8% and QQQ is up 12.5%. Sort of an obvious tilt in favor of large caps for now, but will it continue? I feel a need to compare the expanded list of P123 benchmark series against each other for actionable info…