Top 20 stock picks contest for 2018

Yuval/Burd4/Judgetrade/Mgerstein,

Please, share any other long term track record yearly buy and holding investment experts website similar to http://www.crossingwallstreet.com.

So, we will include those experts buy list also in this stock pick contest for yearly holding buy list. and also will learn some more investment lessons from other long term successful experts.

Thank you for your initiative on 2017 contest.

Thanks
Kumar :sunglasses:

Eddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 eight times in the last ten years.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/12/cws-market-review-december-22-2017.html

2018 Buy list of Eddy Elfenbein
No Symbol
1 ADS
2 AFL
3 BDX
4 CBPX
5 CERN
6 CHD
7 CHKP
8 CSV
9 CTSH
10 DHR
11 FDS
12 FISV
13 HRL
14 ICE
15 INGR
16 MCO
17 ROST
18 RPM
19 SBNY
20 SHW
21 SJM
22 SNA
23 SYK
24 TMK
25 WAB

Thanks
Kumar :slight_smile:

Kumar, Iā€™d like to compete in the contest this year. Should we post our top 20 in this thread?

Instead of posting just the stock picks, how about posting a live, publicly accessible port?

Submitted ports could restrict the buy list by using either a custom universe or using Ticker(ā€œā€) in the buy rules. And to capture any dividends, rebalance after a year. Or is there a better setup for live ports?

Walter

EDIT: To facilitate search, we probably need a naming format for the ports, too.

Yes, please, post your stock 20 picks here.

naming can be Contest_2018_XXXXX
ie., XXXXX= Kumar, Walter,
https://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=1515639

both posting stock list and setting port are preferred.
having the list in this forum become read only after few days;

I will post my list before 31st dec 2017. My picks will have only SP500 and high liquidity stocks.

Thank you all for participating in the 2018 stock pick contest.

Thanks
Kumar

what were the results of this year?

Iā€™ll be posting the results on Saturday. Itā€™s a little bit complicated because the custom lists I created last January werenā€™t changed when a ticker changed names or became acquired, so I need to do some manual adjustments to those lists. If anyone knows of an easy way to look up a new ticker for an old one on P123, please let me know. An example might be ABTL, which changed to AUTO a couple of months ago. If you made a list on 1/1/16 with ABTL on it, it wouldnā€™t be bought by a simulation unless I substituted AUTO for ABTL in the list.

This was fun. Are we using the same Buy Rules as last year? It looks like I am going to end 2017 in the +25% range.

Yuval,

I propose a new rule on liquidity for 2018.

even the contest is for fun; our time is precious, I suggest to have reasonable liquidity;

avg volume for last 100 days > 100K shares, price above $2.00, ADT(100) > 200K, AvgVol(100)>100K, minimum market cap > 50M
Minimum price $2. so we can avoid penny stocks.

Thanks
Kumar

all lists should be posted before market open on January 2, 2018.
Weā€™ll use opening prices on January 2, 2018,
no slippage to keep things simple. Whoever comes out with the highest percentage increase by the opening price on January 2, 2019 wins.
We can track winners every 3 months (quarterly).

Thanks
Kumar

And to capture dividends, how about 52W rebalance?

Walter

Letā€™s keep the same rules as for last year. I regularly invest in stocks under $2 and under $100,000 average daily dollar volume. Thatā€™s my area of expertise, and I donā€™t think it should be excluded. Go ahead and submit large caps if you want; Iā€™ll be choosing microcaps. And changing the rules only 3 days before the contest deadline is unfair.

Yuval,

Good, We will keep your rule as minimum liquidity as last year;
if anyone has 2 options; I suggest to have high liquidity stock list for the contest 2018.
I will submit highly liquid stocks :sunglasses:

Thanks
Kumar

Ok, how about this for a working template; https://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=1515873

I think the Universe filters are right. Make local copies of both the live port and universe and edit the Universe to include the stock picks and the port to include your username.

Walter

Here are my 20 picks for 2018. I own about half of these, so my moneyā€™s on the line.

FWP
UWN
KEQU
OTEL
RCMT
HDNG
PCOM
NWY
BBRG
ABCD
PRTS
GSL
CTG
BSET
PFSW
ACNB
HBIO
ZIXI
ZYXI
SAMG

Iā€™ll add five more to compete with Eddy:

MNDO
KMDA
SPRT
HLTH
SGMA

  • Yuval

Here are my 20 picks. Similar to Yuval, Iā€™ve got money in a handful of these. Also, this is setup in a live public port off of Walterā€™s template: P123 Stock Picking Contest: 2018 fatmcb1

ARCO
CVRR
DZSI
EC
EXPI
FENG
FLL
GFA
GLUU
GOL
IVFH
JASN
MLCO
RFP
RIBT
TKC
TLRA
TSU
VALE
YZCAY

Hereā€™s to a good 2018!

Best,
Mike

Ok, here are my picks! And as a bonus, Iā€™ve included Barronā€™s 10 favorite stocks for 2018 (December 9, 2017 issue).

https://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=1515959 (wwasilev)

https://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=1515960 (Barronā€™s)

Both live ports should be public and findable under search.

If everyone uses the same port naming format, a search for ā€œP123 Stock Picking Contest: 2018ā€ should list all contest entries.

Happy New Year!

Walter


I think it would be interesting if everyone briefly explained their rationale.

I normally donā€™t pick stocks for year-long holding periods, so this is a different challenge. Per Buffett, the price you pay is pretty important to the return you get for long holding periods. I tried to approach this how I imagine Buffett would, so I bought predictably strong businesses that are at least fairly valued according to their underlying fundamentals.

I limited my universe to my comfort zone: stocks with at least $1B market cap. So I am unlikely to win the contest. I just donā€™t have any microcap strategies.

Finally, I limited how much I invested in each sector. My 2018 contest port is now public.

Limiting your universe to at least $1B market cap says nothing about how likely you are to win. The winner of the 2017 contest was Kumar, whose picks were all S&P 500 stocks.

Iā€™ll briefly explain my rationale. Iā€™ve done a lot of year-long rolling backtests using various factors on this universe, and what seems to work the best is a ranking system Iā€™ve designed. Itā€™s primary factors are volume (lower better), market cap (ditto), gross profit to EV, share turnover (lower better), operating income growth (most recent quarter to same quarter last year), net operating assets to assets (lower better), operating margin growth (median better), forward earnings yield, sales yield, and adjusted EPS growth (most recent quarter to same quarter last year). But I use a lot of other factors too.

From my models ā€˜Aboutā€™ section;

Walter

So you are picking microcap penny stocks based on low market cap and low volume, but you are enjoying automatic liquidity when in reality you would have to wait weeks in some cases for those orders to complete? Or be forced to pay a huge spread to complete the order sooner?

That doesnā€™t seem very fair either.

Slippage is supposed to be 1.5% for stocks trading less than $100K per day, and 5% for stocks trading less than $50K. Iā€™m not sure that makes up for it, given your ranking system.