Please, share any other long term track record yearly buy and holding investment experts website similar to http://www.crossingwallstreet.com.
So, we will include those experts buy list also in this stock pick contest for yearly holding buy list. and also will learn some more investment lessons from other long term successful experts.
Instead of posting just the stock picks, how about posting a live, publicly accessible port?
Submitted ports could restrict the buy list by using either a custom universe or using Ticker(āā) in the buy rules. And to capture any dividends, rebalance after a year. Or is there a better setup for live ports?
Walter
EDIT: To facilitate search, we probably need a naming format for the ports, too.
Iāll be posting the results on Saturday. Itās a little bit complicated because the custom lists I created last January werenāt changed when a ticker changed names or became acquired, so I need to do some manual adjustments to those lists. If anyone knows of an easy way to look up a new ticker for an old one on P123, please let me know. An example might be ABTL, which changed to AUTO a couple of months ago. If you made a list on 1/1/16 with ABTL on it, it wouldnāt be bought by a simulation unless I substituted AUTO for ABTL in the list.
even the contest is for fun; our time is precious, I suggest to have reasonable liquidity;
avg volume for last 100 days > 100K shares, price above $2.00, ADT(100) > 200K, AvgVol(100)>100K, minimum market cap > 50M
Minimum price $2. so we can avoid penny stocks.
Thanks
Kumar
all lists should be posted before market open on January 2, 2018.
Weāll use opening prices on January 2, 2018,
no slippage to keep things simple. Whoever comes out with the highest percentage increase by the opening price on January 2, 2019 wins.
We can track winners every 3 months (quarterly).
Letās keep the same rules as for last year. I regularly invest in stocks under $2 and under $100,000 average daily dollar volume. Thatās my area of expertise, and I donāt think it should be excluded. Go ahead and submit large caps if you want; Iāll be choosing microcaps. And changing the rules only 3 days before the contest deadline is unfair.
Good, We will keep your rule as minimum liquidity as last year;
if anyone has 2 options; I suggest to have high liquidity stock list for the contest 2018.
I will submit highly liquid stocks
I think the Universe filters are right. Make local copies of both the live port and universe and edit the Universe to include the stock picks and the port to include your username.
Here are my 20 picks. Similar to Yuval, Iāve got money in a handful of these. Also, this is setup in a live public port off of Walterās template: P123 Stock Picking Contest: 2018 fatmcb1
I think it would be interesting if everyone briefly explained their rationale.
I normally donāt pick stocks for year-long holding periods, so this is a different challenge. Per Buffett, the price you pay is pretty important to the return you get for long holding periods. I tried to approach this how I imagine Buffett would, so I bought predictably strong businesses that are at least fairly valued according to their underlying fundamentals.
I limited my universe to my comfort zone: stocks with at least $1B market cap. So I am unlikely to win the contest. I just donāt have any microcap strategies.
Finally, I limited how much I invested in each sector. My 2018 contest port is now public.
Limiting your universe to at least $1B market cap says nothing about how likely you are to win. The winner of the 2017 contest was Kumar, whose picks were all S&P 500 stocks.
Iāll briefly explain my rationale. Iāve done a lot of year-long rolling backtests using various factors on this universe, and what seems to work the best is a ranking system Iāve designed. Itās primary factors are volume (lower better), market cap (ditto), gross profit to EV, share turnover (lower better), operating income growth (most recent quarter to same quarter last year), net operating assets to assets (lower better), operating margin growth (median better), forward earnings yield, sales yield, and adjusted EPS growth (most recent quarter to same quarter last year). But I use a lot of other factors too.
So you are picking microcap penny stocks based on low market cap and low volume, but you are enjoying automatic liquidity when in reality you would have to wait weeks in some cases for those orders to complete? Or be forced to pay a huge spread to complete the order sooner?
That doesnāt seem very fair either.
Slippage is supposed to be 1.5% for stocks trading less than $100K per day, and 5% for stocks trading less than $50K. Iām not sure that makes up for it, given your ranking system.