Stocks trending lower, making lows and then basing

Research
1

Here is what I am looking for:

  1. Stocks that made their lows for the past year, 6 months ago and
  2. They had been trending down in the past year, 6 months ago and
  3. Have been basing since then (close(0) is within, say, 20% of close(126)).

Basically I am looking for somthing like what I have attached in the file

I have tried but not been able to come up with anything that is satisfactory. Here are some of the rules that I tried

(Highest(#Close,252,126)-Lowest(#Close,252,126))/Highest(#Close,252,126) > .75 // There has been a 75% change in the price in the last year, six months ago…could be hi-lo or lo-hi
Close(126) < Lowest(#Close,252,126) * 1.05 // Close 6 mo ago was the lowest in the year prior
close (0) < 1.2 * Lowest(#Close,126,1) // Last Close is within 20% of the lowest in the 6 months

Any help would be appreciated. I have made that screen public

https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/107759?st=1

Screener Help.ppt (20.5 KB)

2

Try starting with this:

https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/107771

Steve

3

“I have tried but not been able to come up with anything that is satisfactory.”

Clicking “Totals” on your screen page results with 0 positions. Especiallly the 6(!) rules for 2-month price drop seem to strict.

And the backtest shows you that a massive 1-year price decline alone does not make rising prices in the future probable.

I think, this finding is satisfactory.

Matthias

4

Steve,
Thanks. I am going to explore your screen but I don’t think it fulfills what I am looking for. I will keep on tweaking it and see where it takes…I will come back for help.

Matthias,
My intent is not to build a trading system with it, but rather just use it for what it is…just a screener to start my manual research.
I agree that the 6 rules for 2 mo price drop might be too strict. I will tweak it too.

All
I have tried using this

(Pr26W%Chg > -10) & (Pr26W%Chg < 10)

to see if the stock has been basing, but the screener neither produces a error nor does it produce any number in totals…Am I using it wrong? I just want to make sure that the current price in with 10% (±) of the 6 month price. It seems that finding out if the stock has been basing would be a simple task to do, but apparently not :slight_smile:

5

SC - it isn’t clear to me what you are trying to achieve with

(Highest(#Close,252,126)-Lowest(#Close,252,126))/Highest(#Close,252,126) > .75

It filters out most of the stocks.

The screen I produced has an issue with basing. The stocks continue lower over the last six months so that needs to be fixed. You need a rule such as

Lowest(#Close,126)>=Lowest(#Close,252,126)

but this will likely filter out most of the stocks.

Steve

6

SC,

(Pr26W%Chg > -10) & (Pr26W%Chg < 10) works correctly when used in a Screen as the only rule. it passes 2516 stocks out of the All Fundamental Universe (7037 stocks).

Denny :sunglasses: