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Portfolio123 » List all forums » Forum: Testimonials » Thread: Market Timing |
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ckochiya123
Advanced Member
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Hi All, Try inputting the following signals under "custom exposure" on portfolio123. Then, run some of your sims or ports using this "custom exposure." These Buy and Sell signals are roughly the general signals available through subscription at www.collective2.com/go/etftimer. The system "ETF Timer" scales in and out of trades; however, the buy and sell signals listed below give you a general idea of how timely the signals are. Although I do have a subsription to this system, I receive nothing by recommending the use of the system. I only hope to provide awareness of a tool of value to you all who have helped me so much in my trading through your advice. I think you'll be surprised by the improvement in returns, drawdowns, and Sharpe ratio. I've included graphs of one of my sims--one using market timing and one not using market timing. Sell 1/31/08 Buy 3/14/08 Sell 3/25/08 Buy 4/11/08 Sell 6/25/08 Buy 10/2/08 Sell 10/13/08 Buy 11/19/08 Sell 1/2/09 Buy 3/3/09 Sell 7/14/09 Buy 7/17/09--10/30/09 All the Best, Chris  Results Microcaps With Timing: Annualized Returns= 209.40 Max Drawdown= -23.25 Sharpe Ratio= 3.63 Microcaps Without Timing: Annualized Returns= 90.13 Max Drawdown= -52.19 Sharpe Ratio= 1.29 ---------------------------------------- 
Microcaps with Timing.png
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Microcaps Without Timing.png
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o806
Advanced Member
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Hi Chris: I also subscribe to ETFTimer at C2. Although I have some real money in play using his calls I am not a 100% confident about his method. Before subscribing I emailed him for back test results but he said his method had a significant subjective element so that it could not be mechanically back tested. I like the guy's frankness (about test limitations) but I would be more confident if there was a way to see if he can make decent calls in market conditions that may differ from those we have had in the past couple years. Like you I just use his initial in and final exit calls (ignoring the mid trade scaling up and down). Currently I just use it with the QLD and QID ETFs that he recommends. I do not have the confidence to use his timing calls for more than a fraction of my money. Also, I believe in diversity of methods, so I use a different market timing method with my P123 stock strategies, one which can be mechanically back tested over several market conditions. Regards, Brian |
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ckochiya123
Advanced Member
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Hi All, Portfolio123 is an indispensable tool for enabling us to select top-notch stocks. In my opinion, it is the best tool for fundamental analysis in the world. During Bull Markets, we can realize excellent gains. However, during Bear Markets, excellent gains are harder to realize. Therefore, I highly recommend seeking out Market Timing Systems to enable a trader to exit the market or to go short during Bear Markets. Utilizing Market Timing, a trader can minimize drawdowns and maximize gains. Personally speaking, Market Timing has done me wonders; I am so thankful for it. It has saved me from major drawdowns in my 401k in 2001-2002 and 2008. I encourage you to do your own searching for Market Timing Systems. As a primer, I have included a few below. 1. From Portfolio123 a. Buy Rule: sma(5,0,#SPEPSCY) > sma(21,0,#SPEPSCY) or sma(10,0,#bench) / sma(20,0,#bench) > 1.01 b. Sell Rule: sma(5,0,#SPEPSCY) < sma(21,0,#SPEPSCY) & sma((10,0,#bench) / sma(20,0,#bench) < 1.0 2. ETF Timer --- www.etftimer.collective2.com 3. Stock Market Timer --- www.stockmarkettimer.collective2.com Wishing You profitable trading, Chris ---------------------------------------- [Edit 1 times, last edit by ckochiya123 at Nov 17, 2010 4:49:17 PM] |
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essam
Advanced Member
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Hi Cris, Regarding p123 market timing rules I have few questions: 1) Could be used as buy/sell signal for MUTUAL FUNDS ? 2) If I have daily closing prices of "Fund Benchmark", how to calculate manually: sma(5,0,#SPEPSCY) ? Regards, Essam |
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cheyenne
Advanced Member UNITED STATES Joined: Mar 5, 2009 Posts: 84 Status: Offline |
IntelligentValue.com publishes a Market Up / Market Down list that works fantastic. The important point is that it is published in real time, that is, before the market opens, so that you can put the calls to work in real time. I have compared them to the ETFTIMER Calls and the IntelligentValue results are far superior. I have a finger in the pie at IntelligentValue, but don't believe me, try the exposure list for yourself with your favorite simulation. 01/01/01 03/15/01 06/01/01 09/15/01 12/31/01 02/28/02 04/15/02 10/15/02 11/30/02 03/24/03 01/28/04 03/28/04 04/09/04 05/25/04 07/01/04 08/12/04 10/02/04 10/28/04 01/05/05 02/03/05 03/08/05 04/28/05 08/02/05 08/30/05 09/09/05 10/22/05 12/27/05 02/07/06 05/11/06 07/14/06 12/27/06 01/27/07 02/24/07 03/19/07 06/04/07 08/21/07 10/18/07 11/26/07 12/26/07 01/28/08 05/20/08 07/17/08 09/01/08 12/01/08 01/05/09 03/10/09 06/15/09 07/13/09 10/15/09 11/03/10 01/19/10 02/16/10 04/26/10 07/06/10 08/09/10 09/03/10 11/16/10 12/02/10 The IntelligentValue "Intelligent Market Timing" calls come out in REAL TIME, before the market open. We have one portfolio, called "Market Trends," that uses these market timing calls exactly. It has beaten the S&P 500 by 172%. Daily calls too much for you? We have weekly calls: 01/31/08 03/18/08 03/25/08 04/11/08 07/10/08 08/11/08 08/14/08 09/29/08 10/13/08 10/24/08 10/30/08 11/13/08 01/05/09 01/22/09 01/28/09 02/24/09 07/14/09 07/16/09 04/07/10 04/14/10 04/21/10 05/06/10 05/11/10 05/27/10 07/06/10 07/13/10 We also use P123 to generate our very successful portfolios, which have beaten the market by as much as 570%. Give it a try: http://www.intelligentvalue.com or intvalue.com. There is basically a Free Trial because there is a 100% guarantee for your first month or a pro-rate guarantee for an annual subscription. ---------------------------------------- Chris "Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein ---------------------------------------- [Edit 1 times, last edit by cheyenne at Jan 21, 2011 9:03:02 PM] |
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jskverer
Advanced Member
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I subscribe to the intelligentvalue service and I am pleased by their effort. However, the timing dates shown are misleading. The system did not go "live" until just a couple of years ago. I am not certain of the exact date. The weekly timing system was not even published until a few months ago. I am particulairly upset to see that the weekly dates that are published here are more complete than those on the site. The service could be improved if the timing dates were updated on a more timely and frequent basis. Best regards, Jorge |
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Stittsville123
Advanced Member
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I'm a believer in independent verification such as collective2. Is Intelligentvalue monitored at Collective2 or some other site? Or do we just take someone's word that it works? ETF Timer is another one of those systems that had a strong showing for a period of time but has now been losing consistently for more than 6 months :) Steve |
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dwpeters
Advanced Member
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Hi, Every time I see market timing from Intelligent Value the dates are different. Here is a prior post by Cheyenne listing an Intelligent Value exposure list: http://www.portfolio123.com/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=4619&offset=10#21646 And at the time I responded with this post: http://www.portfolio123.com/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=4619&offset=10#21668 ... pointing out the dates did not match what was posted on the website (which didn't match the market calls I saw in real time when I was very briefly a subscriber a few years ago). Below left I copied the dates from Cheyenne's post above and below right I copied the dates from Cheyenne's prior post that I linked. 01/01/01 03/15/01 06/01/01 09/15/01 12/31/01 02/28/02 04/15/02 10/15/02 11/30/02 03/24/03 01/28/04 03/28/04 04/09/04 05/25/04 07/01/04 08/12/04 10/02/04 10/28/04 01/05/05 02/03/05 01/05/05 02/03/05 03/08/05 04/28/05 03/14/05 05/07/05 08/02/05 08/30/05 08/14/05 11/01/05 09/09/05 10/22/05 12/27/05 02/07/06 01/14/06 02/14/06 05/11/06 07/14/06 05/14/06 07/01/06 12/27/06 01/27/07 12/27/06 03/17/07 02/24/07 03/19/07 06/04/07 08/21/07 06/03/07 08/21/07 10/18/07 11/26/07 10/18/07 12/01/07 12/26/07 01/28/08 01/01/08 04/01/08 05/20/08 07/17/08 06/01/08 07/21/08 09/01/08 12/01/08 09/01/08 12/01/08 01/05/09 03/10/09 01/05/09 03/10/09 06/15/09 07/13/09 06/15/09 07/10/09 10/15/09 11/03/10 10/21/09 11/07/09 01/19/10 02/16/10 01/16/10 02/11/10 04/26/10 07/06/10 04/26/10 07/01/10 08/09/10 09/03/10 11/16/10 12/02/10 Given the dates seem to be constantly changing I don't see how they possibly could have been published in real time as claimed, at least not the current dates. And aren't such promotions against P123's terms of use policy?
Don |
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dwpeters
Advanced Member
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Hi, And while we are on the subject of Market Timing, my 2 cents is that I think it is very challenging to do well in real time. Significant market declines are rare events and therefore difficult to predict. For more than a year now I have been using P123 to trade short and I find it to be easier and believe that it will be more reliable than trying to time the market. Just as there are factors that indicate a probability for gains, there are factors that predict the probability for declines. Because these can be tested over years and thousands of trades I believe they will be more reliable going forward. For me it has improved my bottom line (in a rising market) while hedging my portfolio against market declines. Don |
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jskverer
Advanced Member
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Hi Don, I have shorted the SSO as a hedge in a part of my portfolio for about a year now. I am dissatified with the results because my attempt to beat the S & P consistently has yielded relatively low returns. Can you share more about how you hedge by shorting? Do you hedge 100%, some other % of equity or work stictly according to the shorting opportunities? Does the liquidity affect the ability to borrow stock? Best regards, Jorge |
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