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Portfolio123 » List all forums » Forum: Simulations and Portfolios » Thread: Rules to detect acquisition / merger announcements |
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Total posts in this thread: 3 |
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gregdowers
Member
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Is there any way to detect either as a rule or in the screener that a company is an announced acquisition target - or has a merger pending? Sometimes I like to detect a rise on high volume - but I don't care if its because the company is being bought. So I'd like to distinguish whether the rise is due to it being acquired. |
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olikea
Advanced Member
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I have been wondering about this too. Anoterh possibility is if there is a sudden drop in the volatility, perhaps something like ATRN(X,0) << ATRN(X,Z). Generally I find that the vol of takover takerts is unusually low because arbitragers step in to prevent price fluctuations. Of course, the "<<" has to be defined, and the best X and Z factors have to be found too. I am stuck at this point, I cannot find any combination that seems to reliably pick up takeover candidates. I think this might be a better way than a jump on high volume surge, because that can be caused by other positive surprises (broker upgrade, announcement of contract, revisions upgrade etc. etc.) Anotehr possibility is "slowly rising price", again while this is easy to say and to see by looking at a chart, it seems pretty hard to implement it in computer code. I have much sympathy for those trying to program facial recognition into computer! |
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rws737
Advanced Member UNITED STATES Joined: Apr 4, 2007 Posts: 73 Status: Offline |
I like to use the following rule to eliminate buyout stocks that appear in a high relative strength ranking system due to large price changes when the buyout is announced: FRank("ATRN(10,0)",0,1) > 10 It seems that most buyouts gap up and then go mostly sideways with very low volatility. I find this works well to eliminate most stocks that are involved in buyouts. ---------------------------------------- "It is not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves." -Sir Edmund Hillary |
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