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We've all been frustrated recently about performance difficulties regarding our models. But things seem to be getting better and there is evidence to the effect that 2008 was an aberrant year in which the market almost stopped differentiating between worthy and unworthy stocks. Even so, the quants remain unhappy and it's still easy to get discouraged if you listen to enough market chatter. Don't get caught up in that. The sort of modeling we do at Portfolio123 is different from what the soapbox quants do, and our approach is just fine. Full Article »
Fri Oct 23, 2009 By Marc Gerstein 0 comments
When times are tough investors and members of the financial media love to bash analysts and corporate executives, especially when it comes to issues relating to accounting. After all, it's still less than a decade since some once-mighty corporations were brought low by accounting scandals. But please, please, please don't go overboard and assume that accountants are the ones who are always providing the most helpful information. Notwithstanding some occasional abuses (every profession has some bad apples), security analysis in general is honest work and can provide insights that are much more useful to investors. Unfortunately, however, it's GAAP that sometimes obscures economic reality. Full Article »
Thu Oct 15, 2009 By Marc Gerstein 0 comments
It's been about a year since the stock market fell off the cliff and every strategy seemed to go bad. Can we finally put that to rest and go back to modeling? Full Article »
Wed Oct 14, 2009 By Marc Gerstein 10 comments
As all-star investors go, Warren Buffett is, perhaps, the most intriguing. Many of us think we know what he's all about: value, good company management, best-in-class companies that will be on top forever, etc. Actually, though, there can be wide gaps between the homespun folksy image that's been built around him and the modern reality, which in some ways, can look more like an aggressive hedge fund. But once we come to grips that no quantitative model can actually turn us into Buffett clones, we find that we can still use certain core Buffett philosophies to come up with an interesting model that, performance-wise, can hold its own in Omaha, New York, or even the moon. Full Article »
Wed Aug 05, 2009 By Marc Gerstein 10 comments
When it comes to all-star investors, Ben Graham is iconic, being half the Graham-and-Dodd team widely credited with inventing fundamental stock analysis back in the 1930s. But don't think, for even a single minute, that his approach is quaint, old fashioned, or anything like that. The stocks our Graham model favors now, depressed cyclicals and oilfield service firms, are not glamorous. But the performance record of this model shows returns that ought to be snazzy enough by anyone's standards. Full Article »
Thu Jul 30, 2009 By Marc Gerstein 15 comments
